Before making your MLB pick for tonight's game, keep in mind that the fortunes of both San Francisco Giants & Kansas City Royals changed over the weekend, clearly confirming a reversal of momentum.
Prior to Game 3 of the World Series, I released a Top of the Ticket series play on San Francisco at (-125). That opinion did not look good when the Royals beat San Francisco 3-2 Friday night to take a 2-1 series lead. The weekend fortunes of these teams went in opposition directions, however, meaning San Francisco enters Game 6 needing one victory to win its 3rd World Series in 4 years. If you made that World Series play on the Giants, I suggest you hold your action.
Following a 48-50 start, the Royals are still on positive runs of 51-26 and 11-3. But, the bats have gone quiet with the Royals scoring 4 or less runs in 6/7 of their previous games and 2 or less runs in 4 of those 7 games. The Giants have been trending upward since season end. With weekend victories by a combined count of 16-4, San Fran is now on positive runs of 11-4 and 6-2. In those 8 most recent games, they have scored 44 runs. In winning Game 5, San Francisco falls into a pattern that has seen the Game 5 winner, in any series tied 2-2, go on to win the World Series 27/41 times. Along with the fact that the Game 1 World Series winner has gone on to win 14/17 recent World Series, I feel comfortable in our series play. One historical downer of note is that 8/10 home teams, who trailed 2 games to 3 in this series, have gone on to sweep Games 6 and 7 at home to garner the title.
This price has been greatly impacted for both Kansas City need, as well as the outstanding current form of the Royals’ rookie starter, Ventura. In fact, KC has won the last 7 starts by Ventura in which the hard-throwing rookie, whose fast ball approaches 100 mph, has worked 36 IP allowing just 14 runs. In a trio of playoff appearances (all KC victories), Ventura has been equally consistent, allowing just 7 runs in 18 IP.
At the opposite end of the spectrum is the work of San Fran starter, Peavy. Peavy was clearly reborn following his trade to San Francisco from Boston. Entering Game 2 of this series, which he lost 7-2 to Ventura, Peavy had made 12 starts, spanning 78 2/3 IP with a 2.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 58/17 KBB. Tonight, however, he returns to a mound in which he has made 8 career starts with a record of 1-6 and a greater than 6.00 ERA. As a result of that defeat, San Francisco has now lost Peavy’s last 2 playoff starts in which he has allowed 6 runs in 9 IP.
The history at this site and current form of Peavy is cause for concern. As a result, we will merely hold our World Series play in Game 6 and suggest a pass for this game's MLB pick.