Well Rested Weaver to Key MLB Odds ‘under’

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, September 20, 2014 4:58 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

 

It should be a low scoring affair Saturday night when Colby Lewis and the suddenly red-hot Texas Rangers (61-92, 33-46 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander and well rested Jared Weaver and the Los Angeles Angels (95-59, 51-28 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA at 9:05 ET in a game televised nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Bet365 is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -125.


Break Up the Rangers!
This is a true best vs. worst matchup as the Angels have been the best MLB picks in the Major Leagues this season at 95-59 while the Rangers have been the worst at 61-92! However, you would be hard pressed to tell that about the Rangers lately, as they have caught fire seemingly out of the blue winning seven straight games, with the seventh win coming here in Anaheim last night in the series opener in convincing fashion 12-3.

To be fair, the Angels have been on cruise control while losing two straight games since clinching the American League West title, so the big loss last night is nothing to be concerned about. Los Angeles even scratched starting pitcher Jered Weaver each of the last two nights to give him some extra rest, so he should be fit and ready to go this evening.


Weaver Ready to Go
Not that Weaver needed much rest as he is very good form right now. Weaver is 17-8 with a 3.50 ERA over the entire season and he enters this contest having allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts. He was especially sharp vs. the Houston Astros when he last pitched last Saturday, allowing just one run and four hits in seven innings with an impressive 12 strikeouts vs. one walk, marking Weaver’s first double-digit strikeout game all year.

Weaver has also pitched well in both of his starts vs. Texas this year, allowing a grand total of three runs and eight hits in 15 innings, and he has now allowed two runs or less in each of his last three starts vs. the Rangers going back to last season.


Lewis in Good Form Too
However, Weaver may not get much run support here the way that Lewis has been pitching as of late. Lewis has allowed a total of three earned runs and 10 hits in 14 innings over his last two starts, a streak that began with an outing vs. these Angels in Arlington where he allowed two earned ruins on five hits in seven innings without walking a single batter.

Lewis is the first known Major Leaguer to return to the league following hip resurfacing surgery, so his slow start this year could be understandable. However, he has started showing signs of his old self since the All-Star break, so he could be in line for a surprisingly good season next year.


Going ‘under’ at Home
Finally, the ‘over’ last night notwithstanding the Angels have been trending ‘under’ quite a bit recently as it is 25-11 in their last 36 home games, and many of those ‘unders’ have come in night games like this one as the ball does not carry well in this stadium once the sun goes down.

With all of this in mind, look for that ‘under’ pattern to continue with another one in Anaheim on Saturday.

MLB Pick: Rangers, Angels ‘under’ 8 (-125)