Wednesday's Pitching Report - 7/28

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, July 30, 2014 1:43 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 30, 2014 1:43 PM UTC

Do you want to know who holds the MLB betting edge in a matchup of two red-hot pitchers between Felix Hernandez (Mariners) and Corey Kluber (Indians)? Is John Lester’s recent excellent form going to be able to overcome his recent struggles versus Toronto? Read our resourceful MLB handicapping article to get those answers.

Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) @ Cleveland Indians (Kluber) 7:05 PM ET
The Mariners starter Felix Hernandez has been absolutely magnificent this year in posting an excellent 1.99 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 22-starts. He’s allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 13-starts, and in 19 of his 22 overall in 2014. “King Felix” has seen his last 5-starts all go under the total (1.18 ERA), and 8 of his last 9-outings (1.20 ERA) as well. The Mariners ace has been undeterred when it comes to low totals. He’s seen just 2 of his last 16-starts go over the number when the total is 6.5 or less. Hernandez has faced the Indians once this season, and was lights out in going 8.0 innings, allowing just 1-hit, no earned runs, and struck out 9 during a 3-0 Mariners win. However, there’s a red caution flag that I would be remiss not to bring to your attention. The Mariners hurler is 0-2 against the money in his last 2-starts at Cleveland while posting a huge 11.42 ERA.

The Indians starter Corey Kluber has been red-hot over his past 6-starts. He’s seen 5 of those 6 go under the total while posting a superb 1.58 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Indians ace has gone 13-9 against the money this season with a stellar 2.77 ERA, and compiled an almost 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. This will be his first career start versus the Mariners.

MLB Betting Advantage:  Considering the fact that the Indians have gone 6-0 at home versus the Mariners since the 2012 season, and the recent struggles that Felix Hernandez has had at Progressive Field, I’m giving the slight edge to Corey Kluber in this battle of pitching aces.

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Toronto Blue Jays (Buehrle) @ Boston Red Sox (Lester) 7:10 PM ET
The Blue Jays' Mark Buehrle began this season red-hot by going 11-1 against the money in his first 12-starts. Then he hit the proverbial wall like many aging veterans do around this time of the season, and has gone 3-6 against the money in his last 9-starts. Buehrle enters tonight in bad form over his last 4-starts posting a sizable 7.20 ERA and 2.10 WHIP. He’s had a difficult time in 2-starts versus the Red Sox this season posting a lofty 5.84 ERA.

The Red Sox starter John Lester has been outstanding of late going 7-1 in his last 8 against the money with a terrific 1.07 ERA. In 11 starts at home this season he’s posted an excellent 1.91 ERA in a ballpark that’s not exactly pitcher friendly. As a matter of fact, he’s gone 6-0 against the money in his last 6 at Fenway Park, and all 6 of those went under the total, posting a microscopic 0.61 ERA in the process of doing so. However, for whatever reason, he’s struggled in his 2-starts versus Toronto this year going 0-2 with a large 7.43 ERA.


* * UPDATE - Red Sox Pitching Change * *
Since the original time of this writing, The Red Sox have scratched John Lester from today’s start. It’s been widely rumored this turn of events has taken place due to the possibility of the veteran Red Sox hurler being traded.

Hence the Red Sox will go with Brandon Workman on the mound tonight. The 25-year old right-hander hasn’t made a start since July 8th at home versus the White Sox. Workman has gone 2-6 against the money this season, and has cost MLB bettors that backed him -5.10 betting units. He’s displayed bad form over his last 3-starts, going 0-3 against the money, posted a large 6.50 ERA, and allowed a whopping 5 home runs in 18.0 innings during those outings. Workman has also started 10-games for AAA Pawtucket this season and had an unimpressive 4.45 ERA.

MLB Betting Advantage:  If this were earlier in the season, there would be no hesitation on my part to give Mark Buehrle a decisive edge in this pitching matchup. However, Buehrle has struggled of late, and Workman has shown nothing that would lead me to believe he will slow down the red-hot Blue Jays offense. I’m leaning toward making a MLB betting pick on going over the total of 9.0 in this one.

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