Wednesday Historically Offers Run Line Value to Those Who Know Where to Look

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, June 24, 2015 2:04 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 24, 2015 2:04 PM UTC

On Wednesday we come right back to run line action for sports picks. We have dissected the MLB odds and arrived at three MLB picks, two underdogs and a favorite.

Braves vs. Nationals: Atlanta has Starting Pitching Edge on Paper
Washington's Jordan Zimmermann (5-5, 3.75 ERA) has been among the most trusted pitchers on the Nationals staff for a numbers of years, but he's been in a real funk of late and has lost three straight starts with a 7.63 ERA. The right-hander has never lost four in a row and will be pitching at home against Atlanta where he is substantially better with a 2.75 ERA and his team has won five of his eight starts. Zimmermann also has a solid 3.15 ERA in seven starts against the Braves.

However, Shelby Miller (5-3, 1.99) is one tough hombre and while he's not won any of his last six starts, his 2.97 ERA in that span suggests to me and other baseball handicappers it has not been entirely his own doing. Miller has shown good stopper tendencies and after last night's 3-1 loss, the Braves righty is 9-2 in road games after a loss the last two seasons. (Team's Record) had the best price on Atlanta on the run line I could find at -150 (+1.5) and with the combination of Miller throwing well and Washington 18-38 on the run line after a victory by two or less runs, we will take the number for the first of our Wednesday MLB picks.

MLB Picks: Braves +1.5 -150


Cardinals vs. Marlins: St. Louis Should Cruise Against Miami's Latos
Mat Latos is 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA in his last six starts against St. Louis, but the last time he faced them was 2013, when he was a far better pitcher with greater velocity and truly tilted breaking pitches. Though the Cardinals are only 20-17 and averaging 4.0 runs per contest on the road, they have not faced anyone throwing as poorly in their home park as Latos. The still only 27-year old RH has a ERA bigger than Kim Kardashian's backside at 10.18 in his first six starts at Marlins Park. At the very least St. Louis should get some very good cuts and faces a Miami team whom they defeated last night 4-3 and the Marlins are 1-9 after a one run loss this season. losing by 3.0 RPG in next outing.

Though Jaime Garcia's (2-3, 1.76) record is not sparkling, his ERA is and the left-hander is throwing the ball as well right now coming off shoulder surgery as any point in his career. The Redbirds are +140 (-1.5) RL favorites in this contest and when road teams are in RL range of (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160), after six or more consecutive away battles, playing on Wednesday, they are 58-27 since 2012, including 10-1 this season. In case you are wondering about the day of the week, this matters because it is either the last game of a series or the important middle game the vast majority of the time.

MLB Picks: Cardinals -1.5 +140


Diamondbacks vs. Rockies: Arizona Should Keep Pace With Rockies
The pitching matchup of Allen Webster (1-1, 6.55) vs. David Hale (2-2, 5.28) will not be memorable other than the fact both probably will not be around by the sixth inning. This could well be another high-scoring affair like last night's 15 total runs, which Colorado won 10-5.

This evening as the sun sets on the Rocky Mountains, Arizona is -150 as RL underdogs (+1.5) and they are 9-2 this season against pitcher's like Hale who allow more than a home run a start.

Webster has been prone to walking too many hitters in his initial two starts (eight in 11 innings) but at least he supported by an improving bullpen and Colorado is 68-105 versus pen's whose WHIP is 1.350 or better the last two seasons. With the Rockies bullpen ERA at 5.00 at home, the Diamondbacks will have chances to score and should be a run line winner.

MLB Picks: Diamondbacks +1.5 -150

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