Weak Braves Offense To Hand Out An 'Under' MLB Pick vs. GIants

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 31, 2016 5:40 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 31, 2016 5:40 PM UTC

Matt Wisler of the Braves is quietly fulfilling his potential while pitching for the worst team in baseball, but the poor Atlanta offense makes ‘under’ the MLB pick vs. the Giants.

MLB Record: 29-30-1, +2.38

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
The worst team in the majors is hindering the record of one of the league’s better pitching prospects, but his presence does seem to give value to the ‘under’ Tuesday night when Jake Peavy and the San Francisco Giants (32-21, 16-10 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander and highly regarded Matt Wisler and the Atlanta Braves (15-35, 5-21 home) in the second game of a four-game series from Turner Field in Atlanta, GA at 7:10 ET on FOX Sports - Southeast. The posted total at Heritage is 8½ for this contest with the current MLB odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.


First vs. Worst
This is a battle between a first place team and a last place team, although that was not apparent in the series opener last night with the lowly Braves getting the 5-3 upset here at home. Thus the Giants had some of their momentum slowed after winning seven of their previous eight games, but they still maintain their 4½-game lead over the second place Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West.

As for the Braves, not only are they in last place in the National League East at 15-35 but they are also tied with the Minnesota Twins of the American League for the worst record in baseball even after the victory on Monday. However, they have now been the winning MLB picks in three of their last four games after taking two out of three games from the Miami Marlins over the weekend, although that hot streak does not figure to last much longer.

Wisler Looks Like the Real Deal
Matt Wisler was one of the highest touted pitching prospects in all of baseball when the Braves acquired him from the San Diego Padres as part of the trade for closer Craig Kimbrel, and he broke in with a bang last season holding the eventual National League Champion Mets to one run and six hits in eight innings in his Major League debut. Unfortunately Wisler was erratic the rest of the way finishing the season at 8-8 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

However, he seems to have benefitted from that experience as we are seeing just why the scouts thought so highly of him this year. Never mind the 2-4 record as the Braves have not given any of their starting pitchers ample run support, but consider that he has a very nice 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and an excellent ratio of 46 strikeouts vs. 15 walks in 61.1 innings.

This will mark Wisler’s first career start vs. the Giants, which should make him even tougher to hit, and the Giants have slumped a bit vs. right-handed pitchers while batting .241 and averaging only 3.90 runs against them over the last 10 games.


Atlanta Offense Helps Peavy
Now, we totally get that Peavy is in the twilight of his career, as he has only managed to go 1-5 while pitching for a first place team with a bloated 7.26 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. With that being said though, ever since getting torched for seven earned runs in six inning by the Cincinnati Reds on May 4th, Peavy has actually pitched much better while allowing three runs or less in three of his last four starts with the only non-quality start coming vs. the Cubs.

Well, the Braves are not the Cubs, so Peavy gets a chance to continue his mini-resurgence here vs. an Atlanta offense that is dead last in the Major Leagues in home runs (21) and OPS (.618), 29th or second to last in runs scored (3.22 per game) and 28th in batting (.231). Peavy has yet to face this version of the Braves, but he did pitch well the only time he faced Atlanta last season allowing one run and five hits in six innings with eight strikeouts vs. one walk.

And Besides, Peavy actually has a good ratio himself of 40 strikeouts vs. 18 walks, so even though he is not what he used to be, he had not really been as terrible as the ERA would suggest either.


Trending the ‘under’
Finally, the ‘under’ is now 8-2-1 in the Giants’ last 11 road games and 11-4-1 in their last 16 games vs. right-handed starters. The ‘under’ is also 15-6-4 in the Braves’ last 25 home games vs. right-handed starters, as well as 7-2-1 in Wisler’s last 10 home starts.

Given the fine form of Wisler, Peavy’s recent improvement and the state of the Braves’ offense, look for those trends to continue and go ‘under’ the total when San Francisco visits Atlanta on Tuesday.

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Free MLB Pick: Under 8 +105
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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