Watch Out For Overvalued Blue Jays In Anaheim, Cash With Angels At Dog Price

Jason Lake

Friday, September 16, 2016 7:58 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 16, 2016 7:58 PM UTC

The Toronto Blue Jays are a quality baseball team, but they're not the right baseball pick for Friday's game with the Los Angeles Angels – not at these MLB odds.

It's always a sweat with the Toronto Blue Jays. They were on top of the American League East for a while, but then the Jays dropped four straight series at 3-9 to fall back to the pack. Now they're clinging for dear life onto one of the two Wild Card spots on the junior circuit, with five or six other teams chasing them down.

The Los Angeles Angels are not one of those teams. Toronto got back on the good foot Thursday night, beating the Angels 7-2 and cashing in as a –163 road chalk. Game 2 of this four-game series goes Friday night (10:05 p.m. ET) in Anaheim, with R.A. Dickey pitching for the Jays against Jered Weaver. The weather report: perfect. The MLB odds: Toronto is a –145 favorite at press time, with a total of nine runs on the board.

The Incredible Shrinking Dickey
It's very likely the Blue Jays (80-66, –7.81 units) are overvalued in this situation. They're the favorites, after all, with a strong Canadian betting contingent – the Jays rank sixth on the public money charts. The Angels (63-83, –16.98 units) have been hot garbage pretty much all year; they sit at No. 22 overall. Who the hell wants to bet on these jabronis?

Ahem. We are dealing with R.A. Dickey (5.12 FIP) here. The knuckleballer has plenty of fans here at the ranch, but he's been struggling lately, with just three quality starts in his last eight games. On the season, Toronto is 7.69 units in the hole at 11-17 with Dickey on the mound. Granted, Weaver (5.76 FIP) isn't what he used to be, either. Not even close. But he did pitch well in his last two home games to even his team record at 14-14, good enough for 2.59 units of profit.

Let's see if the data backs up the hypothesis. FiveThirtyEight have the Democrats winning 60 percent of the time – excuse me, they have the Blue Jays winning 53 percent of the time, or –113 on our SBR Betting Odds Converter. Yup, overvalued. We're tempted to put the OVER in our MLB picks instead, even with the total at nine runs, but the OVER is “only” 14-10-4 behind Dickey and 13-12-3 behind Weaver, and they're playing in that warm SoCal air. M'eh. Parlay at your discretion.

Fantasy Corner
My goodness, so much to choose from. Let's go with some Toronto lumber, since Dickey's knuckleball is such a high-variance pitch. Being with the Blue Jays means you're anonymous south of the border: OF Michael Saunders (.836 OPS) is having a lovely season at the plate, but he's only owned in 44.7 percent of ESPN leagues at press time. Ridonkulous. And he's 9-for-26 lifetime against Weaver with a .896 OPS. Put that maple bat in your fantasy lineup, and may the sphere be with you.

Free MLB Pick: Angels +130
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
Record: 22-21 ML, 9-5-1 Totals (+6.66 units)

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