Wacha & Cardinals Will Upset Dodgers

Michael Wacha

Thursday, May 25, 2017 1:36 AM GMT

The Cardinals visit the Dodgers in the finale of their three-game series on Thursday. The Dodgers are at -137 on the MLB odds board, the Cardinals are at +126 and the total has been set at 7.5.

St. Louis Cardinals

As of this writing, the Cardinals have lost three of their last four to fall 1.5 games behind the Brewers in the National League Central.

Right now the Cardinals rank 24th in the majors with 187 runs scored, 12th with a .256 batting average and 27th with 43 home runs. St. Louis is 3rd in the majors with a 3.50 ERA, 10th with a 1.27 WHIP and they're tied 1st with 28 quality starts. Matt Carpenter leads the team with nine home runs and 27 RBI, Jedd Gyorko is hitting a team-best .318 with seven home runs and 18 RBI and Dexter Fowler has six home runs and 18 RBI.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

At the time of this writing, the Dodgers have won five of their last six but they're still 2.5 games behind the Rockies in the National League West standings.

The Dodgers currently rank 6th in the majors with 230 runs scored, 10th with a .260 batting average and 19th with 51 home runs. Los Angeles leads the majors with 3.32 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP and they're tied 14th with 20 quality starts. Cody Bellinger leads the team with nine home runs and 24 RBI, Yasiel Puig has eight home runs and 24 RBI and Corey Seager adds seven home runs and 23 RBI.

 

Pitching Matchup 
Michael Wacha (2-1, 2.74 ERA) vs. Kenta Maeda (3-2, 5.03 ERA)

Michael Wacha threw six scoreless innings, allowing four hits and three walks with five strikeouts in a no-decision in a 6-5 loss against the Giants last Friday. Wacha has worked at least six innings in all his seven starts this season and he has provided a quality start in six of them, giving two earned runs or less in five outings.

Kenta Maeda will be activated from the 10-Day disabled list (hamstring tightness) to make this start. He completed his last rehab start for High-A Rancho Cucamonga last Friday, throwing a scheduled four innings and giving up six singles and three runs. Maeda has had a rocky start this season, posting a 5.03 ERA across 39 1/3 innings but his most recent Major League start was his finest, as he threw a career-high 8 1/3 innings and allowed just two earned runs on five hits in a 5-2 win over the Pirates on May 10.

 

Betting Trends

The Cardinals are 10-7 in road games, 10-8 in May games and 3-1 when playing on Wednesday.

The Dodgers are 2-4 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 11-11 when playing against a team with a winning record.

 

Final Analysis

Maeda threw 60 pitches in Friday's rehab start, so he won't go deep into his first start back, even if he is effective. This means that the Dodgers will turn to their bullpen early and their relievers have given up 51 earned runs in 150 1/3 over 46 games, giving an edge to Wacha and the Cardinals. Wacha has pitched incredibly well this season and I will back him at +126 MLB odds as one of my MLB picks.

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals +127
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes 

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