For our over play in major league baseball today we look to Houston, where the New York Yankees take on the surprising Houston Astros. I think these pitchers are a bit overrated and they're facing two very good offenses today. I look for both these teams to have a lot of quality at-bats and take this game over the total.
Right now MLB odds makers have come out with this game for a total of 9, which may seem a bit high but after looking at the numbers it makes a lot of sense. The game opened at 8.5 and immediately jumped to 9, so you can get some pretty good odds on this game. Like at Sportsbetting, the game is at that total of 9 at +110, for me that is good value.
On the Mound
Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for the Yankees and comes in with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. Surprisingly, with those numbers he has a winning record of 6-2. He is a really hot and cold pitcher, but he had a nice outing on his last game against the Tigers, only allowing two earned runs in six innings pitched. At times though he has been lit up and his away ERA climbs to 6.31 and a 1.82 WHIP. The Astros should have no problem getting some runs up on the board against him. Vincent Velasquez gets the start for the Astros. He has a 4.15 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP. He is a rookie pitcher and this will be only his fourth career start. At only 23 years old the future is probably bright for him, but so far he has not pitched well at home with an ERA over 9.00. Like Eovaldi, he might struggle a bit against the Yankees today.
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Both the Yankees and the Astros are two of the better offensive teams in the major leagues, which is not surprising for the Yankees but a bit surprising for the Astros. The Yankees rank second in the league in runs per game with the Astros not too far behind at seventh. Up and down the offensive stats, both these teams rank from the middle tier to the upper part of the league in most offensive categories. The Yankees rank third in the major leagues in my favorite stat, on base percentage plus slugging, while Houston ranks seventh. Another impressive stat is total bases, in which the Yankees rank first in the major leagues and the Astros fifth. Both these teams give themselves opportunities to score a lot of runs.
From the pitching matchup to the offenses, this game could get ugly early. Both the Yankees and the Astros have been solid at the plate this year and I look for them to take advantage of the two pitchers with ERA's over 4.00. Back the over with confidence, this game has a final of 9-6 written all over it.
MLB Pick: Over 9 at Bovada