Verlander vs Rookie Shoemaker Betting Requires Expert Advice

Darin Zank

Saturday, July 26, 2014 3:46 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 26, 2014 3:46 PM UTC

After splitting the first two games of this four-game set the Tigers and Angels play Game 3 Saturday night (9:05 pm ET). Which way will we go with our free MLB pick for today?

Saturday's Betting Odds
As of early Saturday AM Los Angeles and rookie righty Matt Shoemaker could be found at -119 at Heritage, while Detroit and Justin Verlander could be gotten at +111 at 5Dimes. And most shops were listing the total on Saturday's contest at 8.5 runs.


Friday Re-Hash
Starters Tyler Skaggs and Drew Smyly combined to allow just three runs through 11 combined innings of work, and two of the shakier bullpens in baseball threw almost six innings of shutout ball in a 2-1 Angels victory. LA won as -130 favorite on Friday's betting board, and the game, to our great puzzlement, never approached its total of 8.5 runs.


Saturday's Starters
Shoemaker (7-3, 4.54) is 4/10 on quality starts this year. Last time out he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings against Baltimore, although he walked none and struck out 10, and at one point retired 15 batters in a row. Over his last three appearances he's allowed eight runs through 15 1/3 innings.

For the season Shoemaker has allowed 75 hits in 69 innings, but posted an excellent K/BB ratio of 72/15. LA is 7-3 in Shoemaker's starts, with the totals leaning toward the 'overs' by a 6-3 margin.

This will be Shoemaker's first-ever start against Detroit.

Verlander (9-8, 4.84), by our strict standards, is 10/21 on quality starts, but 0 for his last three. Last time out he gave up three runs in 6 2/3 innings against Arizona, and over his last three starts he's allowed 12 runs through 19 innings.

On the season Big V has allowed 148 hits in 136 innings, while posting a rather mediocre K/BB ratio of 101/49. The Tigers are 12-9 in Verlander's starts, with the totals skewing 'over' 14-6.

This will be Verlander's first start against the Angels since September of 2012.

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Free Pick for Saturday
We're 1-1 with the 'over' in this series so far, and we still think that's the way to go. So we'll take the 'over' 8.5 runs, at the +100 offered at Pinnacle, for today's free MLB selection.

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