Besides the pitching matchup that does lean to Houston, albeit not as much as people may think, this is good betting value on a New York team that plays really well in Yankee Stadium.
Odds makers came out with this game with Houston a bit over a -120 favorite. Across the board the Yankees are a small underdog and the best MLB odds you can get them right now is at +111 at Pinnacle Sports. Unless there is an injury report I'm unaware of my best estimation is that this line is going to drop before first pitch so I would grab it early. I would be surprised to see money flowing in on the Houston Astros in this spot.
Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for the Houston Astros with a 2.37 ERA, 1.02 whip, 156 strikeouts, and a 14-6 record. The beard has been very solid this season, all apologies to James Harden, but he has been less than sharp on the road and has looked a little more human the second half of the season. In his last three road starts he has given up 11 runs in 20 innings off of 27 hits. This makes sense because if you get to him most likely it'll be on the road where he has a 3.65 ERA and batters hitting .250 against him.
The Astros rank 13th in runs scored per game at 4.26, 12th in OPS at .724, and 29th and team batting average hitting .240. The biggest disparity is that away from Houston all their major offensive statistics drop, and drop considerably. They go from hitting .245 at home to .236 on the road and their OPS drops from .762 in Houston to .686 away. Recently they haven't been the most prolific offensive team either in the major leagues so they might struggle little bit again today in New York.
New York Yankees
Ivan Nova gets the start for the Yankees and comes in with a 3.72 ERA, 1.24 whip, 38 strikeouts, and a 5-5 record. His home and away numbers are not that different and he has been decent in his last few starts, in his last 10 starts the worst outings he had was giving up four runs in which he did twice. Besides those two he has been solid and he has the kind of stuff to keep teams in check.
New York ranks second in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.76, fourth in OPS at .750, and 12th in team batting average hitting .254 as a team. Like most good hitting teams they tend to hit a little bit better at home and all their major statistics go up while in New York. They also have a solid OPS against left-handed pitching at .778. Expect the Yankees to do a bit more damage than they did yesterday.
It might be the popular play to think that Houston can avoid losing two in a row to New York, especially with the statistically better pitcher on the mound. Remember this is the Yankees we are talking about and they always play well at home, good value on a team that can definitely win this game, back the Yankees.
MLB Pick: Yankees + 111 at Pinnacle