Valuable O/U MLB Pick on Diamondbacks Over Punch-less Giants

Darin Zank

Thursday, April 16, 2015 3:54 PM GMT

Thursday, Apr. 16, 2015 3:54 PM GMT

The defending World Series champion Giants are stuck in the mud at the moment, “riding” a six-game losing streak into a four-game series with Arizona, starting Thursday night. So how do we bet Game 1?

Diamondbacks-Giants: Game 1 Betting Odds
As of mid-Thursday morning the best MLB odds line we could find on San Francisco and Madison Bumgarner was the -163 offered at Pinnacle, while Arizona and rookie Archie Bradley were getting +155 at Bovada. And most books were posting the total on tonight's game at 6.5 runs.

 

D'Backs-Giants: Series Set-Up
These teams opened this season with a series in Phoenix, the Giants taking two of three games. Two of those games played OVER on the totals.

San Francisco just got swept three games at home by Colorado this week, losing Monday 2-0, Tuesday 4-1 and Wednesday 4-2. For the series Giants sticks accounted for just three runs and 18 hits, just three of those for extra-bases.

Just before that San Francisco lost three of four games at San Diego, scoring a total of seven runs. So this Giants' lineup ranks as one of the most punch-less in baseball.

Arizona, meanwhile, just lost two of three games at San Diego this week. The Diamondbacks won Monday 8-4, but lost Tuesday 5-1 and Wednesday 3-2. Arizona took a quick 2-0 lead in the first inning Wednesday on a Paul Goldschmidt homer, but didn't score again. Later, the D'Backs lost it when San Diego's Justin Upton poked a two-out, solo homer in the bottom of the eighth off reliever Randall Delgado.

Arizona scored only three runs over its last two games, but before that the Diamondbacks had scored 35 runs through their first seven games of this season.

Last year San Francisco took the season series from Arizona 13 games to six, with the totals going 10-9.

 

Thursday's Starters
Bumgarner will be making his third start of this season, and second already against Arizona. On Opening Day Bumsie held the D'Backs to one run through seven innings of a 5-4 Giants victory. But last Saturday he gave up five runs and 10 hits in just three innings of a 10-2 loss at San Diego.

Last year Bumgarner went 19-for-33 on quality starts; San Francisco went 20-13 in those games, with the totals going 18-14.

Since the beginning of last season Bumgarner has started five times against Arizona, giving up seven earned runs and 31 hits through 31 1/3 innings. San Francisco won all five of those games, with the totals going 3-2.

Bradley will be making his second career ML start, after tossing a beauty in his ML debut last Saturday against the Dodgers and Clay Kershaw, giving up no runs and just one hit through six innings of a 6-0 Arizona victory. Bradley and the D'Backs won that game as +170 underdogs.

Bradley, a first-round pick in the 2011 draft, went 29-18 with a 3.14 in four seasons of minor league ball. But at AAA Reno last season the big righty went 1-4 with a 5.18 ERA.

Obviously, this will be Bradley's first-ever start against San Francisco, and to us that gives him an advantage, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

 

Betting Trends
San Francisco went 58-44 last year against right-handed starters.

Arizona went 15-24 last year against lefties.

 

Injury Update
San Francisco 3B Casey McGehee, brought in over the off-season to replace the Panda, has missed recent action with a sore knee, but might return to the lineup tonight.

 

D'Backs-Giants Game 1 Free Pick
San Francisco just can't score right now, and just because it's going up against a guy making his second career start doesn't mean they'll break out tonight. But we also give Bumgarner a good chance to bounce back after that poor outing last time out. So we're thinking runs might be hard to come by tonight. Side with the Under as your best MLB pick for tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Under 6.5 runs at 5Dimes

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