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Shohei Ohtani of Team Japan at bat as we look at our best USA vs. Japan pick
Shohei Ohtani of Team Japan at bat during the first inning against Team Mexico during the World Baseball Classic Semifinals at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images via AFP.

Team USA is riding high heading into the WBC final, as is Japan after a walk-off win on Monday night. Read on for our World Baseball Classic final USA vs. Japan pick.

Team USA punched its ticket to the final with a dominant victory against Cuba on Sunday night. The Americans’ real test came on Saturday night, when they overcame a 7-5 deficit thanks to a grand slam by Trea Turner.

Team Japan also needed some heroics to get to the final. They fell behind 3-0 in the fourth inning before tying it in the seventh. Mexico then retook the lead in the eighth with Japan getting one back in the bottom of the inning. Japanese star Munetaka Murakami finished it off with a walk-off double in the ninth.

Will Team Japan reclaim its crown or can Team USA win the WBC for the second straight tournament?

Here is our best USA vs. Japan pick for the WBC Final (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

USA vs. Japan pick: WBC 2023

Japan (+115 via BetGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Japan is a team that makes pitchers work by grinding out at-bats and getting on base. That’s going to be important against a USA team that has a weak pitching staff.

Team USA starter Merrill Kelly has allowed two runs on four hits and two walks in three innings in the WBC. Their best pitcher has been Adam Wainwright, who is unavailable for this game after starting the semifinal. They can piece together a solid bullpen, but it may not matter against Japan.

Japan’s Shota Imanaga will take the mound in this one. He’s made two appearances in the WBC so far, allowing one run (a home run) on three hits while striking out five in four innings. They’ll also have Yu Darvish and potentially Shohei Ohtani available to pitch in relief.

This game should be a pick ‘em at around -110 each. Japan’s strengths of plate discipline and command should give them a bit of an edge in the final. 

USA vs. Japan best odds

BetMGM (+115)

Japan MLJapan MLJapan MLJapan MLJapan ML

Both BetMGM and Caesars are offering the best price on Japan as of Tuesday morning. The line is more respectable — and thus less valuable — at PointsBet, DraftKings, and FanDuel.

USA vs. Japan odds analysis

This game opened closer to a pick ‘em, but Team USA is now between -125 and -135 to win the WBC final.

The total varies across the board with the Over 9.5 favored at Caesars, a -115 lean to the Over 10 at BetMGM and DraftKings, and the Under 10.5 at -120 or higher at FanDuel and PointsBet.

USA vs. Japan game info

  • Date: Tuesday, March 21, 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: FS1
  • Location: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
  • Weather: Indoors

USA-Japan pick made 03/21/2023 at 11:58 a.m. ET.

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