Tigers To Stun The Indians At Cleveland, Upset Is Coming This Evening - MLB Free Picks

Robbie Grossman Catching Flyball

Charles Stark

Friday, September 16, 2016 5:49 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 16, 2016 5:49 PM UTC

The underdog Tigers offer a lot of betting value and our expert handicapper is not letting this opportunity pass, and neither should you. Read on as he provides his expert insight.

The Cleveland Indians are one of the best home hitting teams in baseball and look to take one more step towards the playoffs as they take on Detroit today. Oddsmakers have come out making Cleveland a strong home favorite with one of their best pitchers on the mound, but is there any value in backing the underdog Tigers?


Detroit Tigers
Michael Fulmer takes the mound today for Detroit and comes in with a 2.76 ERA and 1.05 whip along with a 2.68 ERA on the road this season. Against Cleveland he has an overall ERA a 4.91 in two appearances giving up six earned runs in 11 innings off of 15 hits. However, most of the damage was done in just one game which was way back in May where he allowed five earned runs off of 10 hits in five innings. In his other opportunity to pitch against Cleveland it was also in Cleveland but he was much sharper allowing just one run off of five hits in six innings. Today there is some pretty good plus money value on him and looking closely at his second half of the season I think it is good value to take a shot.  Except for one bad outing in Boston in which he allowed six runs and one in Chicago in which he allowed four he has not allowed more than three runs in any ballgame in this second half. 

At the plate Detroit is one of the best hitting teams in all of baseball and although they haven't had much success against today's starter for Cleveland this season, more on that below, this a very good lineup that can score runs in bunches.


Cleveland Indians
Corey Kluber gets the start for Cleveland and comes in with a 3.05 ERA and 1.04 whip with batters hitting just .221 against him at home. Against Detroit he has been outstanding allowing just one earned run off of seven hits over two starts in 17 innings pitched. The Tigers are hitting just .125 against him so you would think he would be easy money to go ahead and back. However, in his three years prior to this season Detroit has had quite a bit of success against him hitting .293 over the 10 games they have seen him. This has led to him having just a 4.26 ERA along with a 1-5 record against the Tigers in that timeframe so that past success again I believe provides value on Detroit. 

At the plate I feel like a tape recorder as I've mentioned this so many times how Cleveland is such a different hitting team at home compared on the road. Just to stay consistent I will mention it once again as Cleveland averages almost 6 runs a game at home compared to just four on the road and hit close to .290 compared to around .240. All that being said, though I can agree that Kluber and the Indians should be favored there is too much value in backing a Tigers team that can win this game in my opinion.


MLB odds
Oddsmakers have Detroit at over a +150 underdog across the board and for my MLB pick I'm going to back them at +158 at Bookmaker, where you will find a 50% Free Play Bonus. This is just great plus money value on a team that has had passed success against Kluber while Fulmer should come in with the confidence that he can pitch well in Cleveland considering his last outing there.

July/August record 30-23-2
September record: 11-7-1

Free MLB Pick: Tigers +158
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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