Upset Alert! Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Picks on ML & Over/Under

Darin Zank

Sunday, July 12, 2015 12:33 PM GMT

The Yanks and Sox close out the "first half" of this MLB betting season with a rubber match at Fenway Park. In what looks like a tight call this handicapper finds value with the underdog.

Sunday's MLB Picks: Yankees vs. Red Sox
As of early Sunday morning the best line we could find on Boston and lefty Wade Miley was the -117 offered at BookMaker, while New York and Nathan Eovaldi were getting +111 at Pinnacle. And most books we sampled were listing a total on today's game of nine runs, up from an opening of 8.5.

 

The Situation
These teams have split the first two games of this series, New York winning Friday night 5-1, Boston winning Saturday 5-3. Both games played UNDER.

The Red Sox are 9-3 over their last 12 games, while Saturday's loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Yankees.

At 47-40 New York leads the AL East by three games over second-place Baltimore.

At 42-46 Boston trails the Yankees by 5.5 games in the AL East, and trails the Angels by that same 5.5 games in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot. So while they've struggled this season the Sox aren't out of anything yet, and getting to within 4.5 games of a playoff spot by the All-Star break would be nice.

New York leads this season series five games to three, with the totals splitting 4-4.

 

Sunday's Starting Pitchers
Miley (8-7, 4.50) is eight-for-17 on quality starts this season. Tuesday he gave up three runs in 6 2/3 innings against Miami, and just before that he gave up four runs in five innings against Toronto. For the season Miley has allowed 101 hits through 96 innings, walked 37 and struck out 71; Boston is 10-7 in Miley's starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 10-7 margin.

Miley has started twice this season against NY, allowing five runs and 11 hits through 12 1/3 innings; the Sox split those two games, as did the totals.

Eovaldi (8-2, 4.45) is just six-for-17 on quality starts, in part because of a short leash. And actually, he's been pretty good lately. Tuesday he gave up two runs in 5 1/3 innings against Oakland, and over his last four starts he's allowed six runs through 22 2/3 innings. On the season, though, Eovaldi has allowed 116 hits in 93 innings, walked 26 and struck out 67; New York is 10-7 in Eovaldi's starts, with the OVERS going 10-7.

Eovaldi has started twice this season against Boston, allowing five runs and 15 hits through 12 innings; the Yanks split those two games, as did the totals.

 

Sunday's Batting Splits
New York ranks seventh in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .323 team on-base percentage.

Boston, meanwhile, ranks fourth against right-handed pitching with a .327 team OBP.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Fenway Park this season are 23-19 on the UNDERS, even though they've averaged 9.3 runs, sixth-most among all ML ballparks. So it looks like oddsmakers have been over-posting totals on Sox home games this year, just slightly.

 

Injury Update
Boston is playing without IF Dustin Pedroia, who's on the DL with a bad hammy, while New York is playing without OF Carlos Beltran, who's on the DL with a strained oblique.

 

Yanks-Sox Sunday Free Picks
With almost all of our baseball handicapping factors washing out as equal for Sunday's game, we like the value with New York. Also, we could easily see this game getting to 6-5, so we're thinking OVER.

MLB Picks: New York +111 at Pinnacle sports and OVER nine runs (+100) at Heritage sports book