Upset Alert: Pick Diamondbacks +120 vs. Brewers as Hitting Stats Give them Edge

Charles Stark

Friday, May 29, 2015 12:28 PM GMT

For Friday's MLB picks I am backing the Diamondbacks on the plus money line against the Brewers. Neither team is playing particularly well right now, but I will take the value on the better hitting team.

Pitchers
For the Brewers Jimmy Nelson comes in with a 3.67 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and they're favored by the MLB odds makers tonight.  He has been solid this year and is coming off of two good starts allowing only three runs in 13 innings against the Tigers and Braves.  Still, career wise he has an ERA above 4.00 and at home he hasn’t been particularly good recently. In his last two home starts, he allowed eight runs in 13 innings against the two Chicago clubs.  Rubby De La Rosa for the Dbacks comes in with a 4.27 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.  He is a good strikeout pitcher and has good enough stuff to keep the Brewers down in the run column, batters are hitting only .238 off of him on the road.

This capper also previews tonight's Indians vs. Mariners matchup

The Arizona Goldschmidt’s (Dbacks)
Paul Goldschmidt leads the Dbacks in every major offensive categories and the team in general is better at the plate than Milwaukee.  I will keep this simple, Arizona ranks considerably higher than Milwaukee in every major offensive category.  Significant offensive stats include Arizona ranked 4th in runs scored and hits per game while the Brewers rank last in both batting average and on base percentage.

With Nelson on the mound at home it makes sense for the Brewers to be favored even with the disparity in offenses.  Still, for our MLB pick, the value sides with the Dbacks in this contest.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +120 at BetOnline