Upset Alert- Lean Towards Underdog In Reds vs. Cardinals For Your MLB Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, August 9, 2016 4:36 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2016 4:36 PM UTC

Could last night’s result signal the beginning of the long-awaited run by St. Louis? It would be easy to play the momentum of that home win but, the realities are the Cards are still underachieving and remain just 27-32 on their home field.

Cincinnati Reds (Finnegan) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Leake)

Preference here is for Cincinnati plus the huge price in a starting pitching mismatch (based on current form) of huge proportions.  

The Reds were long ago left for road kill in the National League pennant race. Their 45-66 record (.405) is tied with the Arizona D’Backs and Tampa Bay Rays as the only teams in MLB who are better than the lowly Atlanta Braves. But in yet another example of increasing MLB parity in recent seasons, only those Atlanta Braves and the Chicago Cubs are playing outside the parameters of .400 and .600 in MLB. The reason the Reds have acceded to that record is a recent stretch which they have gone 13-9. A key to that success has come on the left arm of today’s starter, Finnegan, who is 4-1 of late, including 12 consecutive scoreless innings of his most recent starts. In 6 appearances against St. Louis, Finnegan has a 2.81 ERA, including 3 outings vs. St. Louis this year, in which he has a 1.00 ERA in 18 IP of work. Those numbers compare favorably to the recent work of today’s St. Louis starter, Leake.  

After a series of solid starts, the rubber band has snapped for Leake. In his most recent 3 starts, Leake has allowed 6 or more runs in each for a 10.69 ERA. Two starts against Cincinnati have shown a 10.32 ERA, including allowing 7 runs and 8 hits last week against the Reds. In 10 starts at home this year, Leake is 2-5. That record is part of the 27-32 home mark for St. Louis. That still leaves me scratching my head after they won an MLB best 55 home games last year on their way to 100 wins for the season. With solid hitting and decent relief, it’s the starting pitching that has left down perennial contender St. Louis. Now, that we are 70% finished with the season, I am no longer convinced the Cards will be making a late-season move. Rather, it is more likely they struggle for Wild Card inclusion. They are currently tied with Miami for the 2nd Wild Card and trail the Dodgers by 4 games for the first Wild Card.

Let’s give Cincinnati a shot as your Big Dog of the Day.  I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on Cincinnati tonight.

Free MLB Pick: Reds +165
Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction

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