Upset Alert- Hot Pitching Makes Angels Our Underdog Pick vs. Royals

Charles Stark

Monday, July 25, 2016 4:24 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 25, 2016 4:24 PM UTC

Neither the Royals nor the Angels have been playing particularly good this season. Today they meet up for their series in Kansas City with two veterans on the mound and the Angels a slight underdog. Is the favorite the best MLB pick for today or is there any value in backing Los Angeles?

L.A. Angels vs Kansas City Royals  
MLB Odds have Los Angeles Angels a +109 underdog like at Pinnacle. For my MLB pick I'm going to back Los Angeles in this spot as they have a hot pitcher on the mound and a good enough lineup to win this game. At worst this game is a coin toss which puts any plus money value on the Angels.


Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago takes the mound for Los Angeles and has allowed just four earned runs in his last four road starts. The Angels offensively have seen their share of struggles this season but they get the opportunity to face a pitcher today who has been giving up a lot of home runs. As well, Los Angeles has some decent numbers at the plate despite their poor overall record hitting .266 as a team which ranks sixth in the major leagues and leading all teams in strikeouts per game at under six per contest. 

The value on this game really lies on starting pitcher Hector Santiago who has been as good as anybody in the major leagues this month. Since his first start on July 2nd he went three straight games allowing zero earned runs over 20 innings and is coming off another good start in which he allowed three earned runs off of just five hits in five innings against Texas. Probably the most impressive statistic of his starts is that in his last 10 games on the mound the Angels have won eight of those including the last five in a row.


Kansas City Royals
Ian Kennedy takes the hill for Kansas City with a 4.28 ERA and 1.21 whip while the Royals are hitting .270 as a team which ranks third in the major leagues. For their good batting average Kansas City has been less than stellar in getting runs across the plate so far this season ranking 25th in the league averaging just over four runs per game. As well, their power numbers rank in the bottom part of the league ranking 27th in home runs per game and 20th with a .725 OPS. 

Kennedy is coming off his worst start of the season allowing seven earned runs off of six hits in four innings versus Cleveland, with four of those hits being home runs. This kind of puts him in a decent bounce back spot but there is no denying the fact he has been giving up the long ball at an alarming rate. In his last nine starts he has given up at least one home run per game allowing 18 total in that span. I expect him to pitch better than he did in his last start but again this is all about value and versus Santiago I really believe this game could go either way, grab the plus-money.


Free MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels +109 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle​

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