Upset Alert: Big Home Dog Betting Value on Braves to Beat Yankees

Charles Stark

Sunday, August 30, 2015 11:27 AM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 30, 2015 11:27 AM UTC

After losing yesterday it looks to me like there is good betting value today to take the Atlanta Braves on the plus money line as the Braves have a good starter on the mound in Julio Teheran.

MLB odds
Naturally MLB odds makers have made the New York Yankees the favorite in this spot opening the line on New York anywhere from -170 to -180. That line has dropped a little bit and the best line right now to back the underdog Braves is at 5Dimes at +159.


New York Yankees
Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for the Yankees and comes in with a 4.00 ERA, 1.42 whip, 107 strikeouts, and a 13-2 record. He is arguably having his best year in four years as a major league pitcher. Also, in his last 10 starts he has pitched really well only allowing one team to get four runs off of him and that was just once in Cleveland. Still, his road numbers are not that great and on away games this season he has a 4.94 ERA with batters hitting .325 against him. The Braves are not one of the best hitting teams, but I'm going to lean to them today with the value to get out of their losing streak.

The Yankees rank second in runs scored per game at 4.76, fifth in OPS at .749, and 13th in team batting average hitting .253 as a team. They have dropped in their overall statistics just a bit these last 10 games but they are still one of the best hitting teams in the major leagues. On the road though, much like Eovaldi, their numbers change and they go from being a great hitting team at home to just good on the road. All their major offensive statistics drop like OPS which is a stellar .770 at home but just .729 on the road.


Atlanta Braves
Julio Teheran takes the mound for the Braves with a 4.29 ERA, 1.30 whip, 135 strikeouts, and at 9-6 record. In his last 10 games he has also pitched very well with only one bad outing giving up five runs in Baltimore, besides that he has only allowed three runs at most in any other contest. He has been great in limiting the hit totals as well and in his last three starts he has only allowed 14 hits in 19 innings. He is coming off a subpar start where he pitched well but allowed two home runs, so this puts him in a good bounce back spot. Also, his home ERA is very solid at 2.55 and batters hitting under .200 against him this season.

Atlanta ranks last in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 3.66, last in OPS at .678, and 17th in team batting average hitting .252 as a team. As we can see by the statistics batting average is not always an indicator of how many runs a team can produce consistently. Although this is the case with the Braves most of their offensive stats do go up in Atlanta and I think this is a good matchup for them today to avoid the sweep.

It seems like the Yankees are the easy call in this game but the value here in my opinion is on the Braves. Most likely this line is going to go up so you might want to wait until you place your MLB picks on Atlanta to get more value on them. For some pretty big plus money value you're backing a very good home pitcher in Teheran versus a bit of an overvalued pitcher and Eovaldi, take a shot with the underdog.

MLB Pick: Braves +159 at 5Dimes

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