Unvervalued Pitchers & Stats Analysis Makes 'Under' a Solid MLB Pick for Yankees vs. Royals

Charles Stark

Saturday, May 16, 2015 12:05 PM UTC

Saturday, May. 16, 2015 12:05 PM UTC

When a line comes out that looks a bit strange I really have to pause for a beat. Today I am backing the under when the New York Yankees visit the KC Royals.

The line is Interesting
MLB betting odds makers have come out with the total at 8 in this game between two of the better hitting teams in Major League Baseball. Usually on a game when both pitchers have an ERA over 5.00 and the two teams are ranked in the top 10 in the league in runs scored per game, we are looking at a total of at least 9 to 9.5.  But the odds makers have all the information so as we dig a little more this line starts to make more sense which makes me want to take the under here in this spot.

Check out our full coverage for the Yankees vs. Royals Series

The Pitching Matchup
C.C. Sabathia for the Yankees comes in with an ERA of 5.20 and a WHIP of 1.40 and he has allowed 9 earned runs in his last 19 innings pitched on the road.  He does have the type of stuff though that can keep good hitting teams down in the run column with a career 3.65 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  Also, he has faced some really tough hitting teams this year, and he had one bad outing against the Mets that has ballooned his ERA to an untrue representation of his ability.  For the Royals, Danny Duffy comes in with a 5.67 ERA and 1.71 WHIP, not good at all.  But his numbers are not a true reflection with a career ERA of 3.86 and WHIP of 1.38.  Also in the last three years prior to this season he has a home ERA of 3.33.

For me this is a line play. Both these teams rank in the upper half of the league and usually in the top ten in most offensive categories.  The value here is going against the public which will most likely back the over. I would give this line a little bit of time as my best assessment is that it will go up before first pitch. I am not buying into it, this number is set low for a good reason and I'm siding with the odds makers for my MLB pick.

MLB Pick: Under at GT Bets

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