Underrated Quintana Keys MLB Pick on ‘under’

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, August 19, 2014 2:25 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2014 2:25 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.


It could be a low scoring affair in the Windy City Tuesday night in a matchup between a division leader and an also-ran with right-hander Chris Tillman and the first place Baltimore Orioles (71-52, 37-26 away) pay a visit to southpaw Jose Quintana and the Chicago White Sox (59-66, 31-30 home) in the second game of a three-game series from U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, IL at 8:10 ET in a game available on MASN2.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -105.

Birds Extending Division Lead
The Orioles opened up a 7½-game lead in the American League East over the idle second place New York Yankees with an 8-2 win in the series opener here last night, handing Cy Young Award candidate Chris Sale just his third loss of the season although five of their eight runs did come in the eighth inning off of the White Sox bullpen. The Orioles have the best record in baseball since June 30th at a stellar 29-13.

The White Sox have actually exceeded expectations by being just seven games below .500 at this latter stage of the season after being just 63-99 MLB picks last year, and even with the loss last night they remain one game over .500 at home at 31-30. Unfortunately that improvement over last season still only has Chicago in fourth place in the American League Central and 10½ games behind the surprising division leaders, the Kansas City Royals.

One of Best Pitchers You Don’t Know About
Jose Quintana just may be the best pitcher in the league that casual fans may not have even heard of, as all he does is give his team a chance to win practically every start, and yet the White Sox offense continuously lets him down.

That is a pattern that actually began last year when Quintana still finished with a 9-7 record for a team that was one defeat shy of having 100 losses. However, that was over 33 starts as the inordinate amount of no-decisions were another indication of lack of run support for a pitcher that finished with a 3.51 ERA and 164 strikeouts vs. only 56 walks.

As for this year, Quintana has a losing 6-9 record despite a 3.14 ERA and 136 strikeouts vs. 46 walks along with only seven home runs allowed in 25 starts, translating to a 2.87 FIP that ranks 14th in the Major Leagues and a 4.0 WAR that ranks 11th! When Quintana allowed four runs in 6.2 innings vs. the San Francisco Giants in his last start last Wednesday, it snapped a string of 10 straight starts of allowing three earned runs or less, allowing two earned or less in nine of them!

Tillman Model of Consistency
Tillman has been just as consistent for the Orioles however as he comes off of another fine outing vs. the Yankees where he allowed only two runs and five hits in seven innings without a single walk. That made it 13 straight starts for Tillman now where he has allowed three earned runs or less, and he allowed two earned runs or less in nine of those starts.

Thus Tillman has pitched much better than his 9-5 record as he has lowered his ERA to 3.68 overall to go along with a good 1.26 WHIP. And should he ever be in need of relief, he has a hot Baltimore bullpen supporting him that has posted a 2.10 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over the last 10 games covering 30 innings.

Pitchers’ Success vs. Opponent
Also each pitcher has a nice track record vs. his opponent tonight. Quintana has faced the Orioles once this season and held them to one run on six hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts, marking his third straight Quality Start vs. Baltimore since the beginning of last year. Tillman has not faced the White Sox since 2012 when he allowed just one hit in seven scoreless innings, marking the second time in three career starts vs. Chicago he allowed one run or less.

Add this all up and we expect a fairly good pitchers’ duel from U.S. Cellular in Chicago on Tuesday.

MLB Pick: Orioles, White Sox ‘under’ 8 (-105)

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