Underrated Pitching Duel Suggests Low Scores for Padres-Brewers MLB Pick

Charles Stark

Tuesday, August 4, 2015 1:31 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2015 1:31 PM UTC

A very underrated pitching matchup with two solid guys on the mound against two subpar offenses in Padres and Brewers game tonight. Join us as we go through the odds to find the best bet.   

MLB odds makers came out with this game at a total of 8 with some pretty high juice on the under. At some places the line is already dropped to 7.5 and at Heritage sports book you can get under the 7.5 at +100, I think that is solid value on a game in which I expect a lot of low numbers. If that trend continues you can expect the 7.5 across the board before first pitch so you might want to wait a little bit until this line drops.


Solid Pitchers
In this underrated pitching matchup for the San Diego Padres Andrew Cashner takes the mound and has really struggled this year with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP along with a 4-10 record. He is well above his career numbers of a 3.45 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and honestly I don't know what the major issue is with him this year. I know his strikeout to walk ratio is not what it should be, but we have seen signs of him improving this second half of the season. He is a much better pitcher than his numbers show and I expect him to do a good job today against the mediocre at best offense in Milwaukee. Also, he is in a good bounce back spot after getting roughed up at the Mets so we should see a much better outing from him today.

For Milwaukee one of the hottest pitchers in baseball gets the start in Jimmy Nelson and he comes in with a 3.76 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. In his last two starts he is allowed zero earned runs in 14 innings off of just seven hits against the Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs. In his last 10 starts he has only had one rough outing where he allowed seven earned runs against Washington back on June 13, but in his other nine out of his last 10 starts he is only allowed 13 total runs. Also, he is not allowed a home run in his last four starts and his home ERA a solid at 3.54 with a WHIP of 1.00.


For the season neither of these teams have been in the upper part of the league in any major offensive category. The Padres are ranked 20th in runs scored per game with the Brewers right behind them at 21st, and in OPS Milwaukee is rank 22nd with the Padres at 29th. In batting average we see more the same with the Brewers rank 22nd hitting .249 on the season as a team and the Padres rank 28th in the league hitting just .239.

What we're getting in this matchup is two solid starting pitchers even though their numbers don't really line up with their ability versus two mediocre to poor offenses. Although the Padres have been swinging the bat a little bit better recently I look for Nelson at home to shut them down. On the other end Cashner is in a great bounce back spot and should be solid against the Brewers, back the under with confidence.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 at Heritage

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