Underdog Rays Get Too Much Value As They Face The Blue Jays In Toronto

Alex Cobb Getting Ready To Pitch

Charles Stark

Wednesday, September 14, 2016 1:16 PM GMT

In a very early game the Blue Jays host the Rays, and our expert capper finds a betting angle he likes. Read on as he analyzes the game, the MLB odds and provides his educated free pick.

The Toronto Blue Jays are in the thick of the wild-card race in the American League and look to be a dangerous team if they make the playoffs. Today they take on Tampa Bay versus a pitcher recently back from Tommy John surgery, can they pick up another win today and get closer to the postseason?

 

Tampa Bay Rays
Alex Cobb gets the start for Tampa Bay and in two starts has a 4.09 ERA and 1.27 whip along with allowing just two earned runs in five innings versus Toronto. Cobb is recently back from Tommy John surgery but we are talking about a guy with a career 3.23, 1.19 whip and can be really lights out at times. He fared very well in his first appearance versus Toronto but not so much in his second start at New York allowing three earned runs in six innings. However, with some big plus money value, I believe he is a quality enough pitcher to go ahead and take a shot on as a big underdog. Although he has not pitched particularly well against the Blue Jays in his career this is just too much plus money value, in my opinion, to go against him. 

At the plate, Tampa Bay remains among one of the worst in the major leagues but over their last five starts they had a few games in which they put up more than a few runs. They also have some decent power numbers ranking 13th and 15th in total bases in OPS respectively. Tough spot for them to win against a good pitcher for Toronto but value wise they are a solid play.

 

Toronto Blue Jays
Marco Estrada takes the mound for Tampa Bay with a 3.68 ERA and 1.15 whip with batters hitting just .218 against him in Toronto. Estrada has been fantastic this season but against Tampa Bay, not so much allowing seven earned runs in 10 innings pitched off of 14 hits in two starts. Perhaps the third time will be a charm for him but again we are talking about plus money value and the fact that he has not pitched well against the Rays I believe gives Tampa Bay a reasonable chance to win this game. As well, in his last seven starts he has been less than stellar allowing 23 earned runs in 35 innings pitched while giving up a considerable 43 hits in that span. Don't look for him to get out of this game unscathed. 

At the plate, Toronto is one of the best home hitting teams in baseball and overall they rank sixth in the league in runs scored per game. At home, they are extremely dangerous but looking at their last 10 games they've had a few contests in which they have not swung the bats well. Today they face a really good pitcher in Cobb and although they've had past success against him this is all about value.

 

MLB odds
Oddsmakers have made Tampa Bay a +170 underdog or more across the board. For my MLB pick I'm in a grab them at the biggest value I can like at +180 at 5Dimes, a book that's offering a 50% Free Play bonus. Most books have them at some really good plus money so you might want to shop around to get the most bang for your buck. I believe Tampa Bay with a good pitcher on the mound has a nice shot to win this contest.

July/August record: 30-23-2

September record: 9-6-1

 

Free MLB Pick: Rays +180
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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