Underdog MLB Picks: Never Easy to Fade King Felix at Home, But...

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, July 9, 2015 1:21 PM GMT

Faced with a pitching standoff, we will place our MLB picks on the 'BERD' (better record dog), who is on a roll. The Angels are clearly the hotter team, as they have won 5 straight.

LA Angels (Richards) vs. Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) 10:10 ET
The LA Angels fly to Seattle following their 3-2 late inning victory at Colorado last night for the 1st of a 4-game weekend set against the Seattle team who lost in late innings on this field by a count of 5-4 to Detroit last night.  In a matchup of hot starters, we side with the BERD (better record dog), who is on a big winning streak and an offensive roll against a Seattle team who’s .670 batting OPS is the 5th worst in MLB. 

It’s never easy to fade King Felix at a competitive price.  From this mound, Seattle has won 6 of his 9 starts in which he has posted a PURE PLAY ON 0.98 home WHIP.  In addition, Hernandez has a strong history against the Angels.  Seattle has won 8 of his 9 recent starts against LAA, in which he has a 5-0 record with a 0.93 ERA.  That includes 3 starts this year, in which Hernandez has posted a 0.90 ERA.  But, Hernandez is not the only hot starter with great history in this matchup.  The Angels have won 10 of 15 starts by Richards.  He has done his best work in his recent outings.  In 5 starts, Richards has gone 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA.  His history in this matchup is every bit as good as Hernandez.  In 5 starts against Seattle, Richards is 3-0 with a 0.97 ERA.  In 2 matchups this year, he is 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA.  Richards enters Safeco tonight having twirled 14 1/3 scoreless innings from this mound.  It doesn’t get much more even than this pitching matchup.

Our edge comes by using the team with the better record, LA Angels (46-38) against an inferior Seattle team, who is 39-46.  The Angels’ record of 21-20 away is clearly superior to the Seattle home mark of 18-25.  But, current form clearly points out the Angels in this one!  They are on a 10-2 run, scoring 46 runs in their previous 4 games.  Compare that to the inferior batting OPS numbers of Seattle and the fact that they are last in MLB with a .205 BA with RISP. 

In a game where the pitching matchup should be virtually even, we are eager to place our MLB picks with the BERD at this underdog price. Motivation will not be an issue for LAA, as despite their 5game winning streak, they still trail the Astros by 1.5 games in their quest for superiority in the AL West.

MLB Picks: Take LAA +127 at YouWager