Underdog MLB Pick of the Night: Back Twins vs. Indians Game 1

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, May 8, 2015 2:27 PM UTC

Friday, May. 8, 2015 2:27 PM UTC

The records of both Minnesota Twins & the Cleveland Indians, as well as their current form, combined with tonight’s betting line, indicate that this can only be your MLB underdog play for Friday.

Minnesota Twins (Pelfrey) vs. Cleveland Indians (Bauer) (-135) 7:05 ET
The Minnesota Twins visit the Cleveland Indians in the first of a 3-game weekend set at Progressive Field.  Earlier this season, Minnesota won 2 of 3 from Cleveland between April 17-19th.  In that series, Minnesota sandwiched a pair of victories by combined scores of 10-4 with a lone loss of 4-2.

After a combined 177 victories the last two seasons, Cleveland is currently 10-17 with the worst record in the American League.  That includes 4-8 at Progressive Field, a number that is equal to the road record of the Minnesota Twins.  The Cleveland staff has a .757 OPS, among the worst in the league.  It is a major reason for the failures of the Tribe to date.  A look at the record of today’s starter, Bauer, shows us he is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA.  That far belies his current form and history.  In 4 outings vs. the Twins, Bauer is 0-2 with a 5.47 ERA.  He enters tonight’s contest having lasted just 4 1/3 IP vs. Toronto, getting blasted for 6 runs while allowing 10 baserunners.  That is bad news when facing the red hot bats of the Minnesota Twins.  

In the first 19 games of the season, Minnesota had scored just 64 runs with a .228 BA.  Tonight, they enter on a 10-3 streak, scoring a whopping 69 runs in their previous 9 games with a .320 BA.  The Twins have scored 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 9 games.  That is a red hot offense!!  Tonight, they send Pelfrey to the mound.  He has been a pleasant surprise with a 2-0 record and a 2.63 ERA.  A strong history against Cleveland suggests that will continue because in 5 starts vs. the Twins, Pelfrey has worked to a .267 ERA.

This is a mind-boggling price offered by MLB odds makers , considering that Minnesota is 5 games better than Cleveland for the season, yet is still priced as a dominant underdog.  Yet, the linemaker is still influenced by Cleveland’s 177 wins the last 2 years, compared to Minnesota’s 136 wins the last two years, as well as the fact that he projected Cleveland to win 11 more games than Minnesota this year.  That makes it a "Perceptions/Reality play" on the Minnesota Twins.  With superior starting pitching and clearly the hotter bats, we can only line up with the Minnesota Twins at this value price as your Underdog MLB pick of the night. 

MLB Picks: Take Minnesota Twins +126 at Pinnacle

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