Underdog MLB Pick +166: Everything's Bigger in Texas, Including Price's ERA

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, August 26, 2015 2:39 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2015 2:39 PM UTC

We examine Wednesday’s AL clash of the Blue Jays vs. Rangers & decide which one of these red-hot teams will prevail tonight.


Jays and Rangers battle in Arlington
The Blue Jays and Rangers will meet for their second of a three game series on Wednesday. The first pitch in Arlington, Texas is slated for 8:05 PM ET. Toronto took the opener 6-5 on Tuesday and is now 3-1 versus Texas this season. Since 2013, Toronto has gone 13-4 versus Texas, and thirteen of those seventeen have stayed under the total.


Playoff Implications for both Teams
Toronto has a one game lead in the AL East by virtue of last night’s win coupled with a Yankees loss. They’ve now won four in a row and six of their previous seven games. On a negative note, they’ve gone a dismal 4-12 this year on the road after winning four or five of their previous six games. David Price will be the mound tonight for Toronto, and he’s 18-7 in his team starts this season with a stellar 2.50 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Price hasn’t been very good in five career starts in Arlington, evidenced by an awful 7.36 ERA in those outings.

Texas enters Wednesday’s game holding a slim half game lead over both the Twins and Angels for the final American League wild card spot. Despite yesterday’s loss, the Rangers are still 9-3 over their last twelve games. They can certainly help themselves if they win with more regularity against average to below average opponents. The Rangers are a stellar 19-9 this season versus teams with a winning percentage of .540 to .620, and just 45-51 versus opponents not within that parameter. By the way, Toronto has a current win percentage of .560. Colby Lewis will be on the hill for Texas. Lewis has gone an impressive 10-2 in his team starts this year versus opponents with a winning record. He’s also displayed very good form over his previous three starts, posting a superb 1.71 ERA and 0.95 WHIP during that stretch.


Rangers huge Profit Margin in this Role
Texas has gone an extremely profitable 17-12 in 2015 as a money line underdog of +150 or more. I’m sure there are a handful of readers out there that aren’t overly impressed by that record. However, let’s put those results into proper perspective. Hypothetically, by risking $100 on Texas in each one of those 29 games, it would’ve resulted in a net profit of $1610. That’s certainly a handsome return on investment.


Final Take
I like the value on the home underdog for one of my MLB picks today. 5Dimes provides us with the best betting value in that regard.

MLB Pick: Texas +166 on the money line at 5Dimes.

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