Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Wednesday.
After cooling off the hot home team last night, look for a second straight upset by the road team Wednesday when Mike Fiers and the Milwaukee Brewers (44-57, 24-28 away) again pay a visit to fellow right-hander Jake Peavy and the San Francisco Giants (55-45, 29-23 home) for the final game of a three-game series from AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA at 3:45 ET in a game available on Comcast SportsNet - Bay Area.
The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Milwaukee as a modest underdog for this contest at current odds of +110.
Missed a Chance to Move into First Place
We cashed a very nice ticket on the Brewers here last night at +137 odds as they prevailed 5-2, and thus the Giants blew a chance to mover into first place in the National League West while the division-leading Dodgers lost at home to the Oakland Athletics. Thus, the defending World Champions from San Francisco remain one-game back in second.
The Giants had been the winning MLB picks in 13 of their previous 16 games prior to Tuesday due in large part to the Brewers being the fifth straight team that they have faced that owns a losing record. Milwaukee was unimpressed however as it evened up the series after San Francisco took the opener 4-2 on Monday, and now we give last place Milwaukee a good chance to win this series today given the pitching matchup, albeit as a smaller underdog than Tuesday.
Fiers Better Than His Record
Fiers comes off of a rough outing in Arizona where he was charged with five runs (four earned) on eight hits plus two walks in five innings, leaving him at 5-8 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP for the season. However, Fiers is generally a favorite among Sabremetricians because his peripheral stats are better than his mainstream stats, and we like his chances of bouncing back well here.
You see, Fiers has 116 strikeouts in 112 innings while pitching in some bad luck allowing a .319 BABIP, and his 1.5 WAR is actually the best on the Brewers’ starting rotation. Even in that bad outing vs. the Diamondbacks last Thursday, Fiers still had 10 strikeouts over the five innings.
And Fiers pitched reasonably well in his first start vs. the Giants this season allowing two runs with six strikeouts and not a single walk before being pinch-hit for after five innings of an unfortunate 3-1 loss.
Season-High Pitch Count
Peavy missed much of this season with a back injury and he will be making his fifth start since returning on July 3rd following nearly a three-month stint on the Disabled List. And he is 2-4 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP overall while lacking the good peripheral numbers that Fiers possesses.
Peavy has a weak command ratio with 5.94 strikeouts vs. 2.70 walks per nine innings, and for someone that pitches to so much contact, he has been a tad lucky in allowing a .282 BABIP. When you then add in his five home runs allowed in only 33.1 innings (1.35 per nine), it computes to just a 4.69 FIP and 4.57 xFIP, both of which are in sync with the bad ERA.
Also keep in mind that while Peavy received credit for a Quality Start last outing, he did so while meeting just the minimum requirement for getting one allowing three earned runs in six innings vs. Oakland and he threw 100 pitches the first time this year, which is a concern for someone that recently came off the DL and makes him a good “bounce” candidate.
Trending the Underdogs
The Brewers continued to take care of business vs. sub-par pitchers with their win over Matt Cain on Tuesday, as they are now 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. starters with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. Additionally, the Giants are just 2-7 in Peavy’s last nine starts overall.
Add this all up and Milwaukee again appears to present good underdog value for the second straight day and again gets our call visiting San Francisco for this series finale on Wednesday.
MLB Pick: Brewers +110