Uncover Betting Value in Today's Starting Pitchers 7/24

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, July 24, 2014 12:09 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 24, 2014 12:09 PM UTC

We’re going to examine two premier starting pitching matchups on Thursday which will aid you in uncovering MLB wagering value. These sports betting situations involve an advantage on the side in the AL Central divisional matchup (Indians/Royals), and a pair of clubs (Tigers/Angels) in which the MLB total is where the wagering edge lies.

Cleveland Indians (Kluber) vs. Kansas City Royals (Duffy) 8:10 PM ET
The Indians starter Corey Kluber has been terrific over his last 5-starts despite going just 3-2 against the money line. In those outings he’s compiled an exceptional 1.75 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He’s gone 13-8 against the money line for the season, and MLB bettors that backed him have made a profit of 3.50 units for the year thus far. He’s fared well in his 3-starts versus the Royals this season, as evidenced by a superb 1.61 ERA, a fabulous 0.76 WHIP, and an almost 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio in those outings. However, a major red flag comes up with Kluber due to his 5 career starts at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. During those appearances he posted a lofty 6.15 ERA, and none of those outings stayed under the total.  

The Royals starter Daniel Duffy has pitched much better than his 5-9 money line record in 2014 would indicate. As a matter of fact, the Royals hurler has posted a stellar 2.77 ERA in those 14-starts. Duffy has seen his last 6-starts all go under the total while showing a very good 2.41 ERA. The last 2-seasons has seen 9 of 10-starts by Duffy go under the total, when he’s installed as a MLB betting odds money line underdog of +100 or more. The average total runs scored in those 10 appearances were a paltry 4.6 per game.

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Advantage: Considering the struggles that Corey Kluber has encountered when pitching in Kansas City, the better than advertised pitching of the Royals southpaw Daniel Duffy, and the fact that the Indians have gone a dismal 4-15 against the money line on the road when facing a left-handed starting pitcher, I’ve arrived at this MLB handicapping conclusion: The starting pitching aspect of my betting strategy clearly has the Royals with the sports wagering edge in this spot. 


Detroit Tigers (Scherzer) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Richards) 10:05 PM ET
The Tigers starter Max Scherzer has been red-hot in his last 5-starts going 4-1 against the money line with a 1.46 ERA. Since the start of the 2012 season the Tigers right-handed ace has started 4-times versus the Angels, and has been superb in those battles. In those 4 appearances he’s put together a sparkling performance line that includes a 1.55 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Sports bettors that have made a money line wager on Max Scherzer in all 20 of his starts this season, have made a net profit of 5.3 units on the year. 

The Angels starter Garrett Richards has been a huge surprise for the Angels this season going a terrific 15-5 against the money line, and making MLB bettors that have sided with him a whopping 9.0 units of net profit in 2014. Richards has gone a superior 8-1 against the money line in his last 9-starts, while posting a stellar 1.25 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. In 2 career starts versus the Tigers the Angels hurler has yet to allow an earned run.

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Advantage: These are two of the best starting pitchers in the American League at this present time. Both of these hurlers have a shining track record versus their upcoming opponent this evening, and each has displayed fabulous form not only in recent starts, but for the better part of the year. It’s for this reason that my MLB betting value here calls for this one to play on the low side of the total.

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