Two Young Guns Duel When Indians Host Marlins, Home Team With Edge

Trevor Bauer

Charles Stark

Saturday, September 3, 2016 7:20 PM GMT

Two teams with playoff aspiration meet tonight when Marlins clash with Indians. Our expert capper takes a look into the MLB Odds and provides his very own betting analysis and pick.

As Miami stays in the hunt for the wildcard the Cleveland Indians are looking primed to make a strong playoff push this season. Today they meet in Cleveland and the Marlins are the small road favorite with ace José Fernandez on the mound. Cleveland will counter with Trevor Bauer who has been hot and cold this season. Is there any value in going against one of the best young pitchers in baseball?

 

Live Odds For Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Indians

 

Miami Marlins
José Fernandez takes the mound for Miami with a 2.79 ERA and 1.12 whip along with 219 strikeouts on the season so far. In his last five starts, Fernandez has been fantastic allowing just nine earned runs in almost 30 innings of work. However, on the road this season he has gotten touched up at times with a 4.02 ERA, 3-5 record, and batters hitting .244 against him. In his last five road starts, he has not got out unscathed although he was excellent in his last outing in New York against the Mets allowing zero earned runs off of three hits in six innings. Still, in his other four road starts prior to that, he allowed 16 earned runs in just about 21 innings of work highlighted by allowing six runs and five runs to Atlanta and Cincinnati respectively. If you're going to go against him on the road is your best shot and there is some value in doing that today against a team in Cleveland that is one of the best in baseball in hitting at home. 

Offensively Miami remains just subpar on the season and some games can really struggle getting shut out twice, scoring just one run three times, and two runs twice in their last 10 games.

 

Cleveland Indians
Trevor Bauer gets the start for the Indians with a 3.73 ERA and 1.30 whip but has allowed 16 earned runs in his last five starts. That big number over his most recent outings is mostly due to one horrible game in which the Minnesota Twins lit him up for seven earned runs off of eight hits in less than three innings. However, he got some revenge against that same team in his most recent appearance shutting out Minnesota allowing just five hits in six innings. As well, in his home outing prior to that, he allowed just two earned runs on five hits in eight innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. Bauer just seems to have a few bad games on his resume that has hurt him this season but he is also the type of pitcher that can come in and put up a lot of zeros. His home numbers are not that great, but batters are hitting just .237 against him in Cleveland and he should have some confidence coming in after pitching two good outings at home in a row. 

At the plate, Cleveland is a completely different monster at home and all of their statistics go up exponentially. They go from averaging just over four runs per game on the road to averaging 5.7 at home and their batting average jumps from .238 up to .294. Getting any plus money value on the Indians at home I believe is a smart play no matter who they are facing.

 

MLB odds
Oddsmakers have Cleveland as a small home underdog from even to a little plus money across the board. For my MLB pick, I'm going to back the Indians at home. This is simply a value play on one of the best home hitting teams in baseball with a starter on the mound that has pitched well recently.

 

July record: 13-9
August record: 17-14-2
September record: 1-0

Free MLB Pick: Indians -119
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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