Two Ways To Profit From When Betting Red Sox vs. Giants

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, June 7, 2016 12:40 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 7, 2016 12:40 PM UTC

Let’s look at some Trends, both scheduled Starters, Tuesday night’s Weather Forecast for The City By The Bay and provide some picks based on what should be two pretty stacked lineups.

Odds Overview
Boston Red Sox at San Francisco Giants [Wednesday 03:15] (MLB Network, NESN, CSN-Bay, Directv 628, Directv 696 (US), 10:15 p.m. EDT/7:15 p.m. PDT): AT&T Park in San Francisco is the site of the first game of the 2-game Interleague series and possible World Series preview between the host San Francisco Giants (35-23) and rookie RHP Albert Suárez (1-1, 3.18 ERA, 10 K’s) and the Boston Red Sox and sinkerballer Rick Porcello (7-2, 4.00 ERA, 62 K’s) and a rare and first meeting in the L3 years between these two historic teams.

Offshore MLB odds makers have opened up the Giants as -122 (at Heritage) Home favorites with the game’s Total (Runs) opening up at 8½ (Under -118, Heritage). The scheduled Starters for Game 2 on Wednesday night (10:15 p.m. EDT/7:15 p.m. PDT) are lefties David Price (7-2) and Madison Bumgarner (7-2) in what should be an exciting game and Red Sox future Hall of Famer David Ortiz’s last ever at this breathtaking stadium on the Pacific Ocean.


Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox (+1050 to win World Series, Bet365) are the current odds favorite to get out of the American League (+425 to win AL, GTBets) and around a month before the 2016 All-Star Game (July 12) at Petco Park in San Diego (FOX, 7:30 p.m. EDT/PDT), the Carmines honestly look like the strongest team in the Junior Circuit and at odds as high as 5/1 still out there to win the AL (BetVictor), now would be the ideal time to take a shot on Boston as the rest of the American League is starting to resemble to modern NBA’s Eastern Conference. Pitching may still be a big question mark for the Red Sox as well as finding a way to win more consistently on the Road (14-12 Road) and the Baltimore Orioles (32-23) were tied with Boston atop the AL East to start the week, so there’s still well over 100 games of Regular Season MLB ahead and a lot of work to do for this team. But when you look at the rest of the league right now and see that the team with the second-best Run Differential—the Red Sox are first at +69 (336 RF-267)—is the 31-25 Seattle Mariners at +49 (287 RF-238 RA), then it’s obvious that this is a down year in the league and that Boston to win the AL might be the most simple and logical bet to make now when nobody’s theoretically looking.

On Sunday in Beantown, the Red Sox were almost no-hit by the Blue Jays Marco Estrada who took a no-no into the 8th but lost it as Toronto held off Boston, 5-4 to win the Rubber Game of the series at Fenway Park. In that game, Boston Manager Terry Francona had a nice-looking Starting Lineup of RF Mookie Betts, 2B Dustin Pedroia, SS Xander Bogaerts, DH David Ortiz, 3B Travis Shaw, 1B Hanley Ramirez, CF Jackie Bradley Jr., LF Chris Young and C Christian Vazquez with Eduardo Rodríguez (5.2 IP, 4 Hits, allowed 4 HRs) the Red Sox Starting Pitcher. Rodríguez was roughed up by four Toronto Home Runs, while at the Plate, Mexico native Estrada dominated host Boston until Offseason acquiree Chris Young (2-4, RBI)—the only Boston (13 LOB) batter with multiple Hits—blasted a solo Home Run in the Bottom of the 8th Inning to start an eventually ill-fated 3-run rally.


San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants (10/1 to win World Series, Coral) haven’t seen the Boston Red Sox in three years and although these two MLB teams couldn’t be farther apart geographically (3,096 miles) unless they moved AT&T Park to Alcatraz Island, they’re an awful lot alike when it comes to Heart, Expectations and Roster Depth—especially when it comes to being able to produce and grind out Runs. San Francisco (+320 to win NL, GTBets), which has won the World Series in 3 of the L6 years (2010, 2012, 2014), fell in the Rubber Game of the series on Sunday at St. Louis, 6-3, as the Redbirds rallied for 4 Runs in the Bottom of the 6th Inning to win their second straight and with it, the series.

In the Loss, San Francisco Manager Bruce Bochy put out a Starting Lineup of CF Denard Span, 2B Joe Panik, 3B Matt Duffy, 1B Brandon Belt, SS Brandon Crawford, LF Gregor Blanco, RF Jarrett Parker, C Trevor Blanco,with veteran RHP Jake Peavy (5.0 IP, 4 ER , 4 Hits) getting the start and again pitching a good game in Busch Stadium but again ending up on the losing side. The Giants (16-11 Home) will be happy to return Home to The City By The Bay after ending a 10-game Road Trip (COL, ATL, STL) with a 5-5 record after winning 13 of their previous 14 games with the lone Loss (8-1) coming to the Cubs and Ace Jake Arrieta at Wrigley Field on May 20.

Starting Pitchers Report Card
Giants RHP Rookie Albert Suárez (1-1, 3.18 ERA, 10 K’s) was pretty impressive in his last outing, retiring the first 9 batters and seeing his Fastball hit 96 mph on the JUGS (Radar Speed) Gun. The 26-year-old Suárez obviously hasn’t seen the Red Sox yet in his career and left-handed hitting veteran Ortiz will get a quick (and last) look at the RHP Venezuela-native Suárez on Tuesday night as one player begins his MLB career and another plays through his last season. Porcello has allowed 3 or more ER in 3 of his L4 starts and gave up three Home Runs in his last Start against Baltimore.

Lifetime against Porcello, Giants Hitters have fared pretty well despite the limited number of Plate Appearances with Gregor Blanco 2-for-2 (HR), Buster Posey and Joe Panik both (1-for-2), Denard Span hitting .385 in 13 ABs and Brandon Crawford going 1-for-4 with 2 RBI. The fact that Porcello has struggled lately and that some San Francisco Hitters have done pretty well against him, Boston has never seen rookie Suárez and that Los Gigantes (1-4 L5 Interleague Games vs. Right-handed Starter) are coming Home after a long Road Trip after playing well here before leaving and should put forth their best effort for Giants fans and young fireballer Suárez.


Trends, Weather Forecast, Final Wrap-Up and Picks
The massive (3,096 miles) Travel involved here, the Body Clock Difference—it will be 10:15 p.m. EDT when the first pitch is thrown and after Midnight EDT for the Red Sox—and Unfamiliarity with both the NL opponent (Giants) and Site (AT&T Park) should provide to be a huge disadvantage for Boston (4-6 L10) which has scored at least 2 Runs in its L10 games in games with 9, 10, 7, 19, 22, 8, 9, 8, 19 and 12 total Runs having been scored in those 10 dates. NL West-leader San Francisco (10-17 Run Line at Home) is 5-0 in its L5 Home games, 5-1 in their L6 Tuesday games, 14-3 in their L17 when an opponent allows 5 or more Runs in their previous game, 35-16 in their L51 Interleague games against a Right-handed Starter and 13-6 their L19 against a Righty. Although the Giants are just 6-15 in their L21 against the AL East, San Francisco is an impressive 31-15 in its L46 Home games following a Road Trip of 7 or more Days, 47-20 in their L67 Home Interleague games (70.1%) and this team was playing its best Baseball of the season before embarking on this 10-game Roadie which promptly ended on Sunday in the Midwest in the Gateway City with that 6-3 setback.

The Over is 4-1 in Porcello’s L5 Starts, 4-0 in Porcello’s L4 Starts after allowing 5 runs or more the previous game, 14-6 in the L20 Red Sox games played on a Tuesday, 14-6-3 in Boston’s L23 games played on Grass (AT&T Park) and the Over is 25-11-3 in the L39 Boston games against a Starting Pitcher with a WHIP under 1.15 (Suárez 1.00 WHIP). And with both of these teams enjoying (more than) a Day of Rest (Monday) and this being a night game, both clubs will have plenty of Energy and both managers will put their best lineups out there, including C Posey who sat on Sunday against St. Louis. And the addition of yet another big bat like Young’s (.295) to the Boston lineup will make getting through an already tough bunch even harder and will deepen Francona’s Bench. The Over is 16-7-3 in the Red Sox L26 games overall.

The Red Sox will like playing in the large, grassy expanses of AT&T and should get their 3-6 Runs here simply because they’re facing a Rookie RHP fastballer and simply because guys like Pedroia (.316), Bradley (.323), Bogaerts (.345), Ortiz (340) and Hanley Ramirez (.282) are just too good at Hitting, no matter where the game is being played. The Boston lineup should provide a challenge for Suárez and expect the Giants Bullpen to see some action around the 5th or 6th as getting through this group three times would be hard on even the best MLB hurlers. And the Giants too should put up between 4-7 Runs against Porcello in this spot, with the Home Crowd thrilled to see their boys back in town and the TWC Weather Forecast is calling for Partly Cloudy skies, a somewhat chilly June (but Frisco-ish) Low of 54° with W Winds of 10-20 mph. The Site and San Francisco’s Expectations at Home makes backing the Giants the call here while the sheer number of Plate Appearances all Pitchers in this game will be facing against tough hitters looks to be too much and this game could see double-digit Runs, making an equally weighted moderate wager on the Over also worth consideration.

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Free MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants +111 & Over 7.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Predicted Final Score: Giants 6 - Red Sox 4
MLB Record: Last Week 1-2 & Season To Date 15-13-1

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