The Dodgers with Kershaw beat Colorado Monday night at a huge price. Tuesday night's MLB odds wasn't quite as heavy, but it's still enough to make this us think seriously about playing the underdog.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Tuesday Odds
As of this writing the best line we could find on Los Angeles with Brett Anderson was the -235 at Pinnacle, while Colorado and fellow lefty Chris Rusin could be found getting +225 at 5Dimes. Pinnacle was also offering the Dodgers at -103 giving the 1.5 runs on the run line.
Los Angeles grabbed Game 1 of this series Monday night 4-1, much to the relief, we suppose, of those who bet the Dodgers with Clay Kershaw at that ridiculous price. LA has now won 16 of its last 20 games, while Colorado is 7-6 over its last 13 contests, which is about as hot as its been in a while.
At 83-60 LA leads the NL West by 7.5 games over second-place San Francisco, and the Mets by half a game in the battle for the No. 2 seed in the upcoming National League playoffs.
At 60-84 Colorado is just playing pain-in-the-ass from here on out.
The Dodgers lead this season series 10 games to four, with the OVERS going 9-5.
Anderson (9-8, 3.36) will start on more than a week's rest, after skipping his last turn in the rotation with a stiff leg. By our tough count Anderson is 12-for-27 on quality starts this season, and just one for his last five. He hasn't pitched too badly recently, he just doesn't go very long. Nine days ago he held San Diego to one run through 5 2/3 innings, and over his last five starts he's allowed 13 runs – 11 earned – through 29 1/3 innings. On the season Anderson has given up 163 hits through 158 innings, walked 44 and struck out 104.
LA is 15-12 in Anderson's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER by a 14-12 margin.
Anderson has started twice against his former team this season, holding them to two ER through 10 1/3 innings; the Dodgers split those two games.
Rusin (5-8, 5.14) is only eight-for-27 on quality starts this season, and a bit erratic as of late. A few starts ago he tossed a five-hit shutout against San Diego; just after that he got bombed by the Mets for 11 runs through just two-plus innings; he then held Pittsburgh and San Francisco to six runs through 15 innings; but last time out, last Wednesday, he gave up six runs in three innings against the Padres. For the season Rusin has allowed 144 hits through 110 innings, walked 30 and struck out 74.
The Rockies are just 6-12 in Rusin's starts, with the OVERS going 10-7.
This will be Rusin's first start against Los Angeles since 2013, when as a Cub he gave up four runs in five innings of a 6-4 Chicago loss.
Tuesday's Batting Splits
Colorado ranks just 26th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .305 team on-base percentage, and 26th with a .358 team slugging percentage.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, ranks third against lefties with a .339 team OBP and eighth with a .418 team slugging percentage.
Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are 38-29 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season, even though they're only averaging 7.5 runs per. Oddsmakers obviously are posting low totals on LA home games.
Los Angeles is a little banged-up at the moment, with four regulars either out or questionable for tonight. Bettors might want to check the lineup cards before getting down on this game.
Rockies-Dodgers Free Picks
There's no way we'd play LA with Anderson at today's price, so that leaves us with two options; the Dodgers against the run line, or Colorado. And with LA missing several regulars from its lineup we'll take a chance on the latter. Also, with a little help from these bullpens, both of which we rate among the bottom third or so in baseball at the moment, this game MLB pick should be OVER.
MLB Free Picks: Rockies +225 & OVER 7.5 runs (-105) at 5Dimes