Two Ways to Profit Off Tonight's Mariners vs. Yankees

Darin Zank

Friday, July 17, 2015 11:43 AM UTC

Friday, Jul. 17, 2015 11:43 AM UTC

Rookie pitcher Mike Montgomery held the Yankees in check six weeks ago, but the Pinstripes get another look at him when they open a three-game series with Seattle in the Bronx Friday night.

Mariners-Yanks Friday Betting Odds
Most of Friday's MLB betting market opened New York and Masahiro Tanaka at around -150 over Seattle and rookie lefty Mike Montgomery, then bumped the Yanks 10 or 15 cents in the early betting. As of this writing the best price we could find on New York was the -162 offered at 5Dimes, which was giving Seattle +157.


The Situation
Just before the All-Star break New York took two of three games at Boston. Just before that the Yankees took two of three from Oakland, and just before that they took two of three from Tampa. So at 48-40 New York leads the AL East by 3.5 games over the second-place Rays.

Just before the break Seattle split four games with the Angels to complete a 3-4 home-stand. Actually, the Mariners haven't won a series since sweeping two games from San Diego almost three weeks ago. So at 41-48 disappointing Seattle sits 7.5 games off the pace in the AL West, and seven games back in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

This is the second meeting between these teams this season; six weeks ago the Yanks swept a three-game series out at Safeco. Two of those games played OVER.


Friday's Pitching Match-Up
Tanaka (5-3, 3.63) is six-for-11 on quality starts this season. Eight days ago he held Oakland to one earned run through 7 2/3 innings, and just before that he held Tampa to three runs through six innings. On the season Tanaka has allowed fewer hits, 56, than innings pitched, 67, walked 13 and struck out 67. New York is 8-3 in Tanaka's starts, with the UNDERS going 6-5.

In two career starts against Seattle Tanaka has allowed three runs and nine hits through 16 innings, with one walk and 20 strikeouts. The Yankees won both those games, and both games played UNDER.

Montgomery (4-3, 2.29) is five-for-eight on quality starts since joining the Big Leagues six weeks ago, but is coming off his worst outing so far, after giving up five runs in five innings against the Angels last Friday. Prior to that Monty had allowed just one run over his previous three starts, covering 23 2/3 innings, a stretch that included back-to-back complete-game shutouts against the Royals and Padres. For the season Montgomery has allowed fewer hits, 42, than innings pitched, 55, walked 13 and struck out 34. The Mariners are 4-4 in Montgomery's starts, with the UNDERS going 4-3.

Montgomery has started once against the Yanks this season, in his ML debut back on June 2, and was good, allowing just one run and four hits through six innings, although Seattle eventually lost that game 5-3 in 11 innings.


Friday's Batting Splits
Seattle ranks dead last in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .231 team batting average, and 28th with a .296 team on-base percentage.

New York, meanwhile, ranks 20th against left-handed pitching with a .242 average but seventh with a .323 OBP.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Yankee Stadium this year are 23-14 on the OVERS, averaging 10.2 runs per, second-most among all ML ballparks.


Friday Free Picks
Montgomery has been great so far, but this is the Yanks' second look at him, and they're likely to have better luck this time out. We like New York, and we'll take a chance with the home team on the run line. Also, Seattle might only score a run or two, so we're thinking UNDER.

MB Picks: Yankees +130 on the run line at 5Dimes and UNDER 7.5 runs (+105) at Heritage

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