To the delight of those who backed Houston with MLB picks, the Astros won a squeaker Saturday against the Tigers, and will try to earn a split of this four-game series Sunday afternoon.
Game 4 Betting Odds
In the early MLB odds, Detroit and Anibal Sanchez were favored by around -155 over Houston with Roberto Hernandez, with a total of 8.5 runs.
Game 3 Recap
Detroit led Saturday's game 2-1 in the fifth inning and had two runners on with none out, but Ian Kinsler hit into a triple play. Houston promptly scored twice in the top of the sixth, and hung on from there for a 3-2 victory. The Astros won as +105 underdogs on Saturday's betting line, and the game stayed UNDER a total of 8.5.
Lance McCullers picked up his first ML victory for Houston, throwing six innings, allowing just two runs and six hits, with one walk and six whiffs.
Detroit starter Kyle Lobstein was charged with three runs and seven hits through 5 2/3 innings.
Keep in mind when preparing your MLB picks that Sanchez is five-for-nine on quality starts this season, but only one for his last three. Tuesday he got bombed for seven runs in less than four innings by Milwaukee, and over his last three starts he's allowed 13 ER through 17 2/3 innings. On the season Sanchez has given up 34 ER and 55 hits through 54 2/3 innings, with 15 walks and 48 strikeouts; Detroit is only 3-6 in Sanchez' starts, with the totals tilting OVER 6-3.
Sanchez last started against Houston two seasons ago, when he held the Astros to two runs through seven innings of a 7-2 Tigers victory.
Hernandez, by our strict standards, is only three-for-eight on quality starts this season, but two for his last three. Tuesday he held Oakland to two runs through six innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed eight runs through 20 innings. For the season Hernandez has allowed 22 ER and 48 hits through 49 2/3 innings, with a very mediocre K/BB ratio of 23/14; Houston is 4-4 in Hernandez' starts, with the totals going 4-3.
Hernandez last started against Detroit back in 2013, when as a Tampa Bay Ray he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-2 loss.
Sunday's Batting Splits
Houston ranks 14th in the Majors against right-handed pitching this season with a .714 team OPS.
Detroit ranks third against righties with a .753 OPS.
Game 4 Free Pick
Despite his struggles last time out we still give Sanchez the edge in the pitching match-up, and Detroit owns an edge with the sticks. So we like the Tigers today. But we don't like that price, so we'll take a chance with the home team on the run line. Also, if the Kitties are going to beat the run line they'll have to score some runs, so we're thinking OVER.
Free MLB Picks: Detroit +146 on the run line at Pinnacle and OVER 8.5 runs at WagerWeb