Two Ways to Beat the MLB Odds in Dodgers-Giants Tonight

Darin Zank

Monday, September 28, 2015 3:51 PM GMT

The Dodgers went off this season as heavy favorites on the MLB odds to win the NL West, and now find themselves one win away from acheiving that goal.We wonder what's the panic level in LA?

Dodgers vs. Giants Monday Odds
In perusing the MLB odds early Monday AM the best line we could find on Los Angeles with Zack Greinke was the -155 offered at Pinnacle, while San Francisco with Jake Peavy was getting +150 at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
Los Angeles, trying to clinch a division title, just got swept three games in Colorado over the weekend, losing Sunday 12-5. So the Dodgers have lost seven of their last nine games.

San Francisco, meanwhile, just took two of three games at Oakland over the weekend, winning Sunday 5-4. But the Giants are only 1-2 over their last three series, 4-5 over their last nine games.

Doesn't anybody want to win this division?

At 87-68 Los Angeles leads the NL West by six games over 81-74 San Francisco, with seven games to go. So with a magic number of two the Dodgers just need one victory in this series to clinch. But LA has also fallen a game and a half behind the Mets in the battle for home-field advantage in a likely upcoming NL divisional-round playoff series.

The Giants lead this season series nine games to six, with the totals leaning UNDER by an 8-6-1 margin.

 

Monday's Mound Match-Up
Peavy (7-6, 3.83), by our tough accounting, is eight-for-17 on quality starts this season, and three for his last three. Last Wednesday he tossed six shutout innings against San Diego, and over his last three starts he's allowed just three runs through 19 innings.

San Francisco is 9-8 in Peavy's starts this year, 3-1 over his last four, with the OVERS going 10-7.

In his one start this season against Los Angeles Peavy gave up four runs and six hits, including dingers to Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier, through 5 2/3 innings of a 5-4 Giants loss four weeks ago.

Greinke (18-3, 1.65) missed his last start with a sore calf but is supposedly good to go tonight. On the season he's 25-for-30 on quality starts, and seven for his last eight. Ten days ago he held Pittsburgh to two runs through seven innings, and over his last eight outings he's allowed just ten runs through 55 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 22-8 in Greinke's starts, with five wins in a row, while the UNDERS are 17-13.

In two starts this season against San Francisco Greinke has allowed four runs through 13 1/3 innings; LA won both those games.

 

Monday's Batting Splits
Los Angeles ranks seventh against right-handed pitching this season with a .324 team on-base percentage, and seventh with a .416 team slugging percentage.

San Francisco, meanwhile, ranks fourth against righties with a .328 team OBP and ninth with a .414 team slugging percentage.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at AT&T Park are 40-31 on the UNDERS this season, averaging 7.5 runs per.

 

Injury Update
San Francisco is a banged-up outfit at the moment, playing without five guys who might normally start a game like this, including the guy we think is the spark-plug of the team, OF Hunter Pence. The main reason the Giants are still alive in the playoff race is because LA is stumbling down the stretch.

On the other side of the scorecard Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig is on the DL, and 1B Gonzalez has missed recent action with a sore back, and is questionable for tonight.

 

Dodgers-Giants Free Picks
Greinke gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, but San Francisco owns an edge in the bullpen comparison. And we wonder what the mental state is in that LA locker room. Also, with so many key sticks missing from both lineups, we're thinking runs might be rare tonight. So for our free MLB picks here we like the value with the Giants as home dogs, paired with the UNDER.

MLBPicks: San Francisco & UNDER 6.5 runs (+100) at Heritage