Two Ways to Ace MLB Odds & Double the Profit with Dodgers vs. Braves

Darin Zank

Tuesday, July 21, 2015 12:47 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jul. 21, 2015 12:47 PM GMT

Atlanta almost scored as many runs Monday as it had in its previous four games combined. But might an outburst like that just set the Braves up for a fade Tuesday night?

Dodgers-Braves Tuesday Betting Odds
In the early betting the best line we could find on LA and Brett Anderson was the -135 offered at YouWager, while Atlanta and fellow lefty Alex Wood were getting +128 at GT Bets. And every shop on our MLB odds board was listing a total on tonight's game of 7.5 runs, with most of the grease leaning toward the UNDER.

 

The Situation
Atlanta took the opener of this series Monday night 7-5. The Braves led early 4-0, allowed LA to tie the score at 4-4, then pulled away with a run in the bottom of the fifth and two in the sixth.

The Dodgers put guys on first and second with nobody out in the top of the eighth, but Atlanta LF Eury Perez threw out Adrian Gonzalez at the plate to stifle that rally. LA then loaded the bases with none out in the ninth, but Howie Kendrick hit into a double play.

The Braves are now 25-19 at home this season, while Los Angeles is 20-24 on the road.

Big-picture, at 44-49 Atlanta sits seven games back in the NL East race, and six games back in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

At 53-41 LA leads the NL West by 3.5 games over second-place San Francisco.

These teams have split four games this season, with three of those games playing OVER.

 

Tuesday's Twirlers
Wood (6-6, 3.76), by our strict standards, is just six-for-18 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last two. Nine days ago he got bombed by Colorado for seven runs in less than six innings, and that was working on eight days rest, after leaving his previous start after just two pitches, due to rain. For the season Wood has allowed 123 hits through 105 innings, walked 30 and struck out 80.

Atlanta is 7-11 in Wood's starts, with the totals leaning OVER by a 9-7 margin.

In two career starts against Los Angeles, including a winning effort back in May, Wood held them to two runs through 14 innings; the Braves split those two games, while both games played UNDER.

Anderson (5-5, 3.17) is nine-for-18 on quality starts, and five for his last six. Nine days ago he held Milwaukee to three runs through seven innings, and over his last six starts he's allowed 11 earned runs through 40 innings (2.48 ERA). On the season Anderson has allowed 112 hits through 108 innings, walked 28 and struck out 77.

The Dodgers are 10-8 in Anderson's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER 10-8.

In his only career start against Atlanta, back in May, Anderson held them to two runs through seven innings of a 6-3 Los Angeles victory.

 

Tuesday's Batting Splits
Los Angeles ranks 13th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .251 team batting average, and sixth with a .326 team on-base percentage.

Atlanta, meanwhile, ranks 26th against lefties with a .231 average and 23rd with a .303 team OBP.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Turner Field are 23-18 on the OVERS this season, averaging 8.1 runs.

 

Injury Update
Atlanta is playing without 1B Freddie Freeman (12 HR, .367 OBP), who's on the DL with a bad wrist, and recently lost closer Jason Grilli (24 saves) for the season to a torn Achilles.

LA, meanwhile, just placed catcher AJ Ellis on the DL with a sore ankle.

 

Dodgers-Braves Tuesday Free Picks
We'll give Anderson the check mark in the pitching match-up, and LA also owns edges with the sticks and in the bullpen. We like the Dodgers for tonight. And because we like to take chances we'll take the visitors on the run line. Also, we could easily see this game getting to 5-3, so we're thinking OVER.

MLB Picks: Los Angeles +125 on the run line at Just Bet and OVER 7.5 runs (+102) at Pinnacle

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