Two 'Under' Totals Highlighted For Wednesday's MLB Picks

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, April 27, 2016 4:29 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 27, 2016 4:29 PM UTC

Our baseball handicapper spots a pair of totals wagers where you should zig while all the others zag. Check inside por the MLB picks and odds for the matches.

2016 YTD MLB: 7-4-1, +2.80 Units

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies ('Under' 11, Pinnacle +102)
The Pittsburgh Pirates enter Wednesday night’s game in Colorado riding a strong 10-3 trend favoring the 'Over'. Their starter in the game, Jon Niese, has had 3 of his 4 starts go over the listed total as well, including 2-0 on the road where he is sporting a 5.56 ERA. 

Niese has had a dinger problem to begin the season, with 1 of 5 of his fly balls given up going out of the yard. He also should hate pitching in Coors Field, even though he is 2-1 in 4 starts over his career. Niese is carrying a 7.94 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, and .375 BAA against the Rockies in Denver.

Starting for the Rockies is Jon Gray, who I backed last week with an 'Over' call and he didn’t disappoint, as Gray gave up 5 earned runs in a 7-5 Colorado win against the Dodgers that went over the listed total of 11.

Gray actually struck out 10 batters in that game, but again, couldn’t keep the ball in the yard as he gave up two dingers in the game. It was Gray’s first start of the season, and his performance earned him a 9.00 ERA and 1.80 WHIP coming into this one. Gray did average 95.4 MPH on his fastball though, so he was bringing the heat in that game.

So, we are all lined up here to take the 'Over' from the MLB odds boards in Colorado again, right? Well, good thing I have checked the weather for us because it is going to make Coors play like Safeco Field on Wednesday night. The temperature should be in the low 40’s at game time, and in addition to that, the wind will be blowing in from the outfield.

This is opposed to my last over call in Colorado where temp’s where in the upper 60’s and we had a stiff breeze blowing directly out. It’s literally going to hurt to hit the baseball in Denver on Wednesday night. Wait for this line to hit 11.5, then take the 'Under' as one of your Wednesday MLB picks.

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Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 10.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage


Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox ('Under' 8.5, Pinnacle +110)
In Boston on Wednesday we get to see one of the few knuckleballers in the league in Steven Wright. Wright is having some great success with the pitch, and hasn’t really run into a string of starts where he has lost command and gotten lit up, i.e. R.A. Dickey.

As a starter, Wright has given up more than 3 earned runs just once in his career. He’s on quite a run as well, as the knuckleballer has given up no more than 2 earned runs in 7 straight starts dating back to last year. Being that this is an interleague matchup, almost no one in the Atlanta lineup has faced Wright and his knuckleball.

Bud Norris has been awful so far this year, and likely comes into this start with his job on line. But he hasn’t been terrible against the players in this Boston lineup, and only Hanley Ramirez has an extensive history of giving him trouble. Which is good, because Norris’s HR/FB% won’t play well in Fenway Park.

I still think he’ll be motivated enough to limit the Red Sox to 4 runs or less though, and Wright should deal against the inexperienced Braves lineup. This line may also move to 9, so wait if you can, but I’m calling 'Under' 8.5 runs in this game as my second Wednesday MLB pick. 

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Free MLB Pick: 'Under' 8.5 (+100)
Best Line Offered: at YouWager

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