Two Money Line Plays for Your Sunday Baseball Picks of the Day

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Mark Lathrop

Sunday, August 20, 2017 12:27 PM GMT

Sunday, Aug. 20, 2017 12:27 PM GMT

In a search for units on this Sunday before the great American eclipse our handicapper, Mark Lathrop, finds a live road underdog in the midwest and a pitcher returning from the DL to fade. Read on as he give his Sunday MLB Picks of the Day!

Our MLB handicapper looks to pick on a pitcher returning from the DL on Sunday, as Chase Anderson comes off of the DL for the Milwaukee Brewers to start in Coors Field.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Diamondbacks

Rehab starts should be taken with a grain of salt, yet the last rehab start for Chase Anderson before he comes off of the DL was a disaster. It was also at AAA Colorado Springs, and his return to the big leagues is at Coors Field against the Rockies. Anderson gave up a home run, 6 hits, and only struck out 2 batters over 4.1 innings against minor league competition there. He had great success in the beginning of the season before getting hurt though, with a 3.44 FIP on the season through 90.1 innings pitched. It looks like there may be some value in fading Anderson based on those numbers without looking at how his rehab stint has gone.

Kyle Freeland starts this game for Colorado and he’s one of the rare pitchers that does better in Coors Field than on the road. On the season, Freeland has put up a 3.93 FIP at home along with a .244 BAA and 1.28 WHIP. Somehow, his HR/FB% is also lower at Coors, with a 11.5% mark at home versus a 16.4% mark on the road. Freeland has done this over 68 innings pitched as well, so we are looking at a reasonable sample size of success. I’ll back him on the moneyline against the returning Anderson on Sunday at 5Dimes as one of my MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies ML (-121)Best Line Offered at 5Dimes

 

Out of a request from his wife, our MLB handicapper must side with the Toronto Blue Jays today. Turns out in justifying his decision to listen to his better half, Mark Lathrop has found an angle with value on the visiting team in Chicago.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs

Marco Estrada starts for the Blue Jays on Sunday, and his 4.54 FIP is nothing to write home about and is decidedly average on the year. However, his struggles have been mostly with righties on the season and the Cubs roster will throw at him a lefty heavy lineup today. On the year, Estrada has only allowed a .232 BAA, .444 SLG, 1.18 WHIP, and 24.9% hard hit rate to lefties. His FIP against lefties is also an above-average 4.20 through 66 IP on the season.

Estrada will face Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs, who has a 3.45 ERA on the season and a 4.14 FIP. He is carrying a 3.05 BB/9 rate that is his worst in his career. Hendricks is also a below average pitcher at home and has a 4.57 FIP in relation to a 3.60 FIP on the road. In short, Hendricks struggles at Wrigley Field, so the Blue Jays should be a live dog with Estrada’s advantageous split in this matchup. I’ll take the prospect of a big payoff here and take the Blue Jays at +180 on the moneyline at Heritage as one of my Sunday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays ML (+180) Best Line Offered at Heritage

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2017 MLB Record, 171-152-9, +7.05 Units (1 Pending)

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