Two High Value Plays on Friday's MLB Overnight Lines

Jacob Faria

Thursday, July 13, 2017 4:29 AM GMT

We browse the early odds board in search of betting value at the start of the second half of the season. Read on and find two MLB picks that will maximize your profits this weekend.

Rockies vs. Mets

Right-hander Jon Gray (2-0, 3.75 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) takes the hill for the Rockies after giving up three runs (two earned) on eight hits and a walk with five strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings in a 5-3 win over the Reds on July 5. It was far from a sharp outing for Gray but 68 of his 108 pitches were strikes and he even hit a 467-foot, two-run home run off Scott Feldman in the second inning. Gray missed over two months with a stress fracture in his left foot but he has a 7.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 11 2/3 innings over two starts since returning from the disabled list, so he's ready to put together a strong performance here.

Jacob deGrom (9-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) will get the ball for the Mets after winning his fifth straight start last Friday, when he allowed four earned runs on eight hits (four solo home runs) and no walks with five strikeouts in seven innings of a 6-5 win against the Cardinals. It might have been far from his best outing, but deGrom was able to settle down down and he got enough run support to pick up the win. deGrom is 5-0 with a 1.62 ERA in his last five starts and he's 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA and one complete game in eight home starts. I'm looking at Under 8 at +104 MLB odds here, with Gray and deGrom stepping up to start the second half of the season.  

Free MLB Pick: Under 8 (+104)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Rays vs. Angels

Jacob Faria (4-0, 2.11 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) takes the hill for the Rays after an outstanding effort against the Red Sox on July 6, when he gave up one earned run on four hits and four walks with two strikeouts over six innings of a 4-1 win. This will be Faria's first career start against the Angels but he's 2-0 with a decent 1.80 ERA in three road starts.

Ricky Nolasco (4-10, 5.06 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) will make his 19th start of the season after one of his worst performances this year, when he allowed eight earned runs on seven hits (two home runs) and two walks with two strikeouts in just 1 2/3 innings of a 10-0 loss against the Rangers last Friday. 

Nolasco had won his previous two starts, pitching 15 1/3 scoreless innings and lowering his ERA from 5.23 to 4.42 but the Rangers got to him early and often. I'm taking the Rays -106 with my MLB picks here behind Faria. Nolasco is just 2-4 with a 4.89 ERA in eight home starts and he'll have a hard time bouncing back from last Friday's poor start.  

Free MLB Pick: Rays -106
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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