Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.
The total may be the better option Thursday night than laying humongous odds with the prohibitive favorite as rookie Trevor May and the last place Minnesota Twins (68-90, 33-44 away) pay a visit to reigning Cy Young Award winner and fellow right-hander Max Scherzer and the Detroit Tigers (88-70, 43-34 home) in the first game of a season ending four-game series from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI at 7:08 ET in a game televised regionally on MLB Network.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -103.
Getting Closer to Division Title
The Tigers overcame an upset loss to the Chicago White Sox on Monday to win the last two games of that series, leaving them two games ahead of the Kansas City Royals atop the American League Central with each club having four games remaining as Detroit pursues its fourth straight division title. And they certainly got a good draw to end the regular season finishing up vs. a last place team.
The Twins have been the worst MLB picks in the division at an even 20 games behind the Tigers, and they are going with a struggling rookie starting pitcher tonight to boot. While it certainly appears to the whole world that the Tigers should win this game handily, that fact is not lost on the oddsmakers that have made them better than -300 favorites! However, we do feel that the ‘over’ is certainly worth a look here at much more reasonable odds.
Tough Spot for May
May made his Major League debut for the Twins on August 9th and to say he has been ineffective would be an understatement. Even his 3-5 record is probably better than it deserves to be as May has a whopping 8.39 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over his 39.2 innings in the big leagues with not much of a command ratio with 37 strikeouts vs. 21 walks. He comes off of another shelling at the hands of the Indians where he allowed seven runs on 8 hits in 4.2 innings.
Furthermore May has already faced the Tigers once and it was not a pleasant experience for him as Detroit reached him for five earned runs on 11 hits in 5.1 innings on August 23rd. There is no reason to believe May can make any adjustments here given his continued poor form lately, not to mention the fact that the Tigers are batting .289 vs. right-handed pitchers while averaging 4.46 runs against them in the last 10 games.
Max is Mighty Again
Given that we expect the Tigers to have their way with May, Scherzer may not even need to allow that many runs to help push this game ‘over’, which is a good thing because “Mighty Max” has followed up his Cy Young campaign with another very good season. Scherzer is 17-5 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a great ratio of 243 strikeouts vs. 59 walks in 214.1 innings.
Believe it or not though, Max has not been as dominant against the Twins this season as he has been against the rest of the league. Scherzer has made three starts vs. Minnesota in 2014 and he surprisingly has a 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in those starts, permitting Twins’ batters to hit .271 off of him over 18 innings while allowing at least three earned runs in all three outings.
And let us not forget that Scherzer has never been known for stamina as he recorded his first and only Complete Game ever this season out of 197 career starts.
Tiger Bullpen Still Struggling
That means that the Detroit bullpen will almost certainly be called upon tonight and that is a prospect that should rightfully make ‘under’ players very nervous. The Tigers rank 27th out of 30 Major League teams with a 4.20 bullpen ERA, and they have shown no improvement in that area with a 4.50 ERA over the last 10 games.
Therefore, let is go ‘over’ this posted total in Detroit on Thursday.
MLB Pick: Twins, Tigers ‘over’ 8 (-103)