Twins' Strong Play at Home Makes Them a Valuable MLB Pick Against Yankees

Charles Stark

Saturday, July 25, 2015 11:57 PM GMT

It is never easy going against a team like the New York Yankees, but today I think we have some good value in going against them when they take on the Minnesota Twins on the road.

Odds
MLB odds makers came out with this game with the Yankees as a -105 favorite and that line has gone up just a little bit. That makes sense for a few reasons because they are the Yankees, having a great season, and their starting pitcher is coming off a solid start. Still, this gives us a pretty good line to go ahead and back the Twins. The best odds to back Minnesota in this spot are at Pinnacle at +104, again for me I will take them from a pick to any kind of plus money.

 

Pitching Matchup
I don't mean to pick on Nathan Eovaldi but this is the second time in a row where I will go against him, even though he pitched well against the Orioles his last time out. He comes into this game with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, and I don't want to forget to mention that he still has a record of 9-2 with those marginal numbers. The reason for the strong record as I mentioned in my article before is that he is one of the top pitchers in the league as far as run support per game. This is still a good spot to go against him though because he has an ERA over 5.00 on the road with a 1.67 WHIP. 

Kyle Gibson gets the start for Minnesota and he is looking to bounce back from a bad outing where he allowed six earned runs in just five innings against the Angels in Los Angeles. He is also looking for a good start against the Yankees, whom he has not pitched well against with an ERA over 10.00 in his career. Despite his last bad outing and previous struggles against New York, he still comes in with a 3.19 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, and at home he has been solid with a 2.60 ERA. Gibson is a pretty good major league pitcher and I look for him to get the monkey off his back against the Yankees today and have a really solid outing. 

 

Batters
There are some good home and away disparities when matching these two teams up offensively. On the road the Yankees average 3.81 runs per game, and at home the Twins average 4.96 runs per game, good for fifth ranked in the major leagues. In OPS we see much of the same with the Yankees at a .677 average on the road and Minnesota a .776 average at home, good for sixth in the major leagues. Overall the Yankees have the higher averages on the offensive end, but when we break these teams down in home and away differences the Twins come away looking strong. Finally, in batting average the Yankees only hit .238 on the road while Minnesota hits .281 at home, good enough for third in the major leagues.

There is a favorable pitching matchup for the Twins, and they are a very good home team. The Yankees are just a slight favorite in this contest, but anything from a pick to a little plus money for me is good value on Minnesota. With the Yankees having such a good season it makes sense for them to be favorite in this spot, albeit slightly and on the road. But when we break down the statistics I think we have some good trends and angles with the home and away disparities that give the edge to Minnesota, so back them with confidence to beat the Yankees today.

MLB Pick: Twins +107 at 5Dimes  

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