With the Minnesota Twins battling for a wild-card spot in the American League things don't get much easier for them today against the Indians. In this solid veteran pitching matchup I'm going to back under the total between the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Indians. Although Minnesota needs this game more Cleveland is favored with the stronger pitcher on the mound.
MLB odds makers came out with the total for this game at 7.5 which seems about right. These two pitchers just recently faced these two opposing teams with different results. Right now there are some good plus money value on backing the under at Pinnacle Sports +100. For my under the total MLB picks of the day I like the value in this spot.
Phil Hughes gets the start for Minnesota and comes in with a 4.43 ERA, 1.29 whip, 94 strikeouts, and a 11-9 record. He just pitched against Cleveland last week and was solid allowing zero earned runs off of four hits in five innings pitched. His last time pitching in Cleveland though was a much different story back in early August where he allowed seven earned runs off a nine hits in just three innings. With Hughes you know what you get, a guy that induces a lot of ground balls and flyballs and doesn't walk a lot of guys. Although his road numbers have been horrible this year with a 5.18 ERA and batters hitting over .300 against him I look for him to come out and pitch a good ballgame today with a playoff like attitude.
Minnesota ranks 13th in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.34, 23rd in OPS at .707, and 24th in batting average hitting .248 as a team. They are simply a different team away from Minnesota than they are on the road. All of their major offensive statistics drop, and drop dramatically. Their batting average goes from .266 to .230, OPS from .756 down to .659, and their runs per game drop from 4.74 down to 3.93 on the road. That is a pretty big disparity and I think they are in for a tough day at the plate against Cleveland's starter Corey Kluber.
Corey Kluber takes the mound for the Indians and comes in with a 3.55 ERA, 1.05 whip, 230 strikeouts, and a surprising 8-15 record. He is coming off and outing in Minnesota last week in which he allowed four earned runs off of five hits in three innings. His start prior to that against Minnesota he allowed just one earned run off a one hit in nine innings. At home he can be very tough and has a 2.87 ERA with batters only hitting .227 against him. Considering he got knocked around a little bit just last week against Minnesota I'm looking for him to come in and have a stellar performance.
Cleveland ranks 18th in runs per game at 4.19, 13th in OPS at .727, and 11th in batting average hitting .257 as a team. Very similar to Minnesota all their offensive statistics jump at home compared to on the road. They probably have a little revenge on their minds as well as Kluber considering Hughes pitched so well against them just recently in Minnesota. Still, even with that being the case I don't look for Cleveland and have a monster day at the plate.
Very good matchup today between a team that has a shot at the playoffs against a team that would like to spoil it. With Kluber and Hughes on the mound you're getting to solid veteran starters that should both come in with a strong performance. For one of your MLB picks today I recommend backing the under in this matchup and look for a low-scoring affair.
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