With so many games on the schedule tonight, there's bound to be value on the MLB odds board. Which total picks should we be adding to our tickets?
Minnesota Twins (Pelfrey) vs. Boston Red Sox (Buchholz)
Last night's game between these two teams was postponed due to inclement weather, so we'll have the same two scheduled starters here on Tuesday night. It'll be Clay Buchholz up against Mike Pelfrey.
The MLB odds have Boston as the clear-cut favorite, while the total seems to be holding steady at eight runs. The Red Sox have been underperforming overall, as they currently occupy last place in the AL East, while ranking low in a lot of the major offensive statistical categories. They've got a lot of pop in the form of David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, but the early returns just haven't been there for Boston at the plate.
That being said, we've got a long way to go and we should expect things to turn around in a positive way. It could happen as soon as tonight against Pelfrey, who is due for some major regression after getting off to a great start in 2015. He's 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year, but his SIERA is at 4.44 and he has an extremely low K/9 rate. Those numbers just aren't going to be sustainable for Pelfrey, and this is an extremely tough matchup at Fenway against the Red Sox.
As you may have guessed, this play on the OVER is more of a fade of Pelfrey than anything else. Buchholz has been solid and he should have a solid outing against a Minnesota team that struggles against right-hander. However, we expect the Red Sox to put up a crooked number on Pelfrey, and as a result we look for the game's final score to end up above the posted total.
MLB Pick: OVER 8 at Pinnacle
Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Wilson)
Our second and final MLB pick comes in Los Angeles, where the Angels will play host to the Rays. In game one of the series yesterday, Garrett Richards pitched six solid innings and the likes of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols showcased their power, en route to a big 7-3 victory.
Now we'll have a pitcher's duel on our hands when C.J. Wilson and Chris Archer go head-to-head. The early MLB betting lines show the Angels as home underdogs, which just goes to show you how good Archer can be on his day. The Rays are -115 favorites right now, with the total at a very low seven runs.
Let's start our breakdown with the favored Archer, who has been lights out for Tampa Bay. He's 5-4 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his first 11 starts of the season, and has a 82:20 K:BB ratio over 68 innings to boot. In short, Archer has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the major this season, and he's not going to be intimidated by a matchup with the Angels, who haven't exactly lived up to expectations offensively so far. They've been heating up as of late, but they've still been underwhelming overall.
Then there's the enigmatic Wilson, who's 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He pitched six excellent innings against the Tigers in his latest start (which also came at home), and he's been a steady hand overall in the rotation for the Angels. And, with both Wilson and Archer doing great things this season and neither offense setting the world on fire, we have a good feeling that the UNDER will cash tonight.
MLB Pick: UNDER 7 at BookMaker