Tuesday's Pitching Analysis & MLB Picks

John Ryan

Monday, May 5, 2014 5:57 PM UTC

Monday, May. 5, 2014 5:57 PM UTC

Two MLB games stand out for us on Tuesday's report card. The Orioles will be travelling into Rays' territory to start off a 3 game series in what is a very close AL East rivalry. Also we look into the Nationals' season long struggle, to find a value pick with Kershaw on the mound.

The weekend saw TWO more 5 star winners with the Phillies easily defeating the Washington Nationals and Arizona getting a road upset win installed as a +125 DOG. The other winner was Friday's 'over' Miami-Los Angeles play that also easily won.  So, for the season to date I am now 4-1 and +3.25 units/unit wagered with these reports and 5 star Titan releases.  

The Phillies AJ Burnett pitched very well and completed 6 innings allowing just 1 ER on three hits, walking two batters while striking out seven batters. His ERA now stands at 2.06 for the season and I do strongly believe there will be another opportunity to play the Phillies with him boxed as the starter in his next start.  

I had backed the winless Brandon McCarthy and he paid us back quite well. He earned his first win against the Padres completing 7 strong innings allowing zero ER on three hits walking one batter while striking out six batters. His last two starts have been dominating and he will be another starter that will remain on my radar for future starts.  

Tuesday's Plays
The Baltimore Orioles will be facing their AL East Division rival Tampa Bay Rays in what has turned into a very competitive race. The Orioles are 15-14 with an even 8-8 road mark while the Rays are right behind standing at 15-17 with an even 7-7 home record. Both are chasing the NY Yankees, who are just 1/2 game ahead of the Orioles. So, even though we are just in the beginning of May these Divisional Series are important to win for each team.  

This is a three game set starting Tuesday. Baltimore will have Tillman on the bump to start this game and will be facing the Rays' Archer. Tillman is 3-1 with a solid 3.68 ERA spanning 6 starts and 36 2/3 innings of work. He was roughed up a bit in his last start going 4 2/3 innings allowing 3 ER on 6 hits with three walks and 8 K's. He did throw 112 pitches with several AB running very deep counts and numerous foul balls with 3-2 counts. However, I fully expect him to go 6+ innings in this start and ear his fourth win.  

He has faced the Rays often with the current members of the Rays batting just 0.221 against him spanning 136 AB. Over the last three seasons, he has posted a 28-15 mark in 61 starts allowing a 0.241 batting average. Against the Rays he has allowed a paltry 0.201 batting average spanning 40 innings of work over seven starts.  

In my second play for Tuesday, I positively love the Dodgers with Kershaw boxed as the starter when they play the Nationals in Washington, DC. The Nationals have not named a starter and not to appear overly confident, I don't think it will matter who their choice is for this matchup. The Nationals are struggling once again to score runs and to get clutch hits that produce game winning situations.  

Kershaw has allowed a 0.221 batting average with a 0.336 slugging percentage to the current members of the Nationals in their respective careers spanning 131 AB. Currently, Adam LaRoche, is off to a strong start to the season and leads the Nationals in many offensive categories. However, he is batting just 0.211 with 11 K's spanning 19 AB against Kershaw.  

It is somewhat difficult to predict a line for this game not knowing the starter for Washington. I will update this play tomorrow to validate as one you can trust to play on the Tuesday card. I'm thinking that the Dodgers will be lined in the -155 favorite area, which is 'cheap' to have the best left-handed starter in the Major Leagues in your MLB picks.
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