Which total plays stand out most when finalizing our MLB picks for Tuesday night? We have inspected all options on the schedule and have found these two to be locks on the 'over.'
Baltimore Orioles (Tillman) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Buehrle)
Chris Tillman and Mark Buehrle take the mound for their respective teams tonight, and needless to say we are expecting more than enough runs to cross the plate.
Do MLB odds makers agree? With a high total of nine runs on the board, which is the largest number of all of Tuesday's games, it's safe to say they do. Right now the Orioles are barely favored here at home, but we're not feeling confident in either side here, considering neither pitcher has been reliable whatsoever early on in the 2015 season.
Tillman checks in with a 2-4 record to go with a 6.25 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Five days ago he was tagged for 10 hits and four earned runs over 5 and 2/3 innings, and he's only logged seven innings once through his first six assignments. As for Buehrle, he hasn't been much better. The veteran southpaw has gone 4-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.85 WHIP and has yet to record an out in the seventh inning. Buehrle was reasonably reliable through his first few starts of the season, but he's been beaten up badly here of late.
Taking all of that into account, we feel good about the chances of the OVER hitting despite the elevated number. Both of these offense are highly capable and feature a lot of power, with big bats like Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson (just to name a few) set to make their mark. This could be a long night for both starters, so we're going to be all over the OVER in what should turn out to be a high-scoring affair in this hitters' park.
MLB Pick: OVER 9
Oakland Athletics (Pomeranz) vs. Boston Red Sox (Masterson)
Our next stop comes in Oakland, this time in what's widely considered a pitchers' park. However, we still think the OVER could be holding value here, with Drew Pomeranz and Justin Masterson on the mound.
Current baseball betting odds show Oakland as a -120 favorite, with the O/U at eight runs. Both teams have been rather disappointing to start the 2015 season, as the Athletics are just 12-22, while the Red Sox are two games under .500 at 15-17. We've obviously still got a long ways to go, but the early returns have been troubling for both ballclubs.
The unreliability of Pomeranz and Masterson for their respective teams hasn't helped. Pomeranz is 1-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.39 WHIP and hasn't logged more than 5.1 IP in any of his last five starts. His command issues have let him down recently, as he's recorded a 10:9 K:BB ratio over his past three assignments. Then there's Masterson, who's 2-1 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He knows a thing or two about control issues, especially after his latest start which saw him walk six batters (allowing seven hits and four runs to boot) in just 4 and 1/3 innings.
This is another spot in which we don't trust either hurler, thus making the OVER an appealing play. Oakland, despite their overall shortcomings, has been solid at the plate, ranking fifth in total runs scored, and they've got some formidable bats with power in the form of Josh Reddick, Stepehn Vogt and Billy Butler among others. We know the Red Sox bring plenty of pop to the table too, with the likes of David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez leading the way. Put it all together and we're going to be recommending that readers consider the OVER for tonight's MLB picks.
MLB Pick: OVER 8 at The Greek