The sportsbooks MLB odds feature a number of larger spreads today. In an attempt to reduce risk, on a couple of these contests we will introduce the idea of utilizing the run line.
In addition we have rivalry game in a matchup of two supposed aces, but one of them is not pitching that way, leaving open the door for betting against him and his team. We have hit nine of 12 recently of our MLB picks here at SportsBook Review, let try and build on that figure.
Gray has Edge over Weaver in Oak-Town
I admit to being a big supporter of Jered Weaver (0-2, 5.25 ERA) throughout his career and especially the last few years in particular when all these over the top the analytics guys have been calling for him to lose almost every time because of the decline of his fastball, where and how his balls were hit and supposedly changing his breakfast habits. All Weaver did was go 49-22 the last three seasons and if you are a MLB baseball handicapper, you picked up +18.5 units over that time.
Weaver has started slow before, but this looks different with 29 hits allowed in just over 22 innings. His fastball seldom hits 90 these days and lacks the tailing action of prior years and his off-speed pitches have lacked their usual dipping motion. Weaver will face Oakland’s Sonny Gray (2-0, 1.91) and it is a given the Athletics will want to start fast after being swept at home by Houston over the weekend.
The betting odds have the A’s as a -150 favorite and with the Angels 10-34 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better the last three seasons, Oakland appears to be the right choice for sports picks.
MLB Pick – Oakland -150
Cincinnati Limits Milwaukee’s Feeble Offense
The Cincinnati Reds will around -200 money line home favorites with Johnny Cueto (1-2, 1.86) on the mound taking on Milwaukee and if history is an indicator this number is well justified. Cueto has won his past five starts over the Brewers, posting a 1.70 ERA and limiting its hitters to a .172 batting average while striking out 33 in 37 innings. The right-hander has been nearly invincible at Great American Ball Park versus the bumbling Brewers, who are 4-16 (-13 units), going 7-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 10 starts.
Milwaukee might receive some help from Kyle Lohse (1-3, 7.94), who’s lone victory came against the Reds five days ago, giving up two runs over seven innings.
However, Cincinnati is 14-6 at home against the Brew Crew and if you study the run line you will find Milwaukee has been thumped with a 5-15 record. With Cueto and Cincy 10-3 on the run line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game since last year, the +115 is too tempting to pass on.
MLB Pick – Cincinnati +123 RL -1.5 at Pinnacle
St. Louis to Pound Philadelphia
No question losing Adam Wainwright was a blow to the Cardinals and they have dropped two in a row since. St. Louis even lost at home last night to Philadelphia, as Cole Hamels finally pitched to his talent level in the Phils 4-1 victory.
Tonight will be different as the Redbirds are -210 favorites with Michael Wacha (3-0, 1.33), who could become the franchise's first pitcher 23 years old or younger to win each of his first four starts to a season since Fred Frankhouse opened 5-0 in 1927.(Useless but fun trivia)
Wacha will be opposed by Severino Gonzalez who is making his major league debut for Philadelphia and was 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA through three starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Coming into this contest, Philly is 10-23 versus the run line in away games having won three of their last four games since 2013 and Wacha and the Cards are 7-0 on the RL at home against a NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse. Take St. Louis at +105 (-1.5) MLB odds for the win.
MLB Pick – St. Louis +105 RL