Tuesday's MLB Picks Backing Chalk-Worthy Favorites

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, May 19, 2015 1:38 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 19, 2015 1:38 PM UTC

Today I have identified three favorites according to the MLB betting odds who I think will win tonight. It’s not a guarantee they will of course, but this is what my radar is pointing to.

Each of these teams is in a very positive position for sports picks and I will go into detail why each should be a good choice for MLB picks.


Diamondbacks vs. Marlins: Miami Wins for New Skipper
Dan Jennings lost in his managerial debut for Miami 3-2 in extra innings to Arizona. According to news outlets, Jennings is the first manager to with no prior experience in the big leagues as a manager or player since former Atlanta owner Ted Turner did a one-game stint in 1977. However, Jennings will be back filling out a lineup for the foreseeable future until owner Jeffrey Loria decides to make this his seventh failed manager since 2010.

One advantage Jennings will have tonight is the ability to create a betting order to take on Diamondbacks starter Jeremy Hellickson (1-3, 5.92 ERA), who has a 7.08 ERA in his last four starts. The Snakes right-hander has been hit hard all season and since last year is 2-13 versus teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game. (Team's Record)

As a MLB handicapper, I can assure you the Marlins are no lock being -130 home favorite at wagering outlets like Wagerweb.ag, sporting a 4-10 record as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Nonetheless, when Hellickson takes the ball if his team is off a win, he is 1-10 since last year, losing by two runs a contest. (Team's Record>

MLB PickMiami -122 at Pinnacle


Twins vs. Pirates: Pittsburgh Leave Minnesota Seeing Double
No question this was unexpected, Minnesota (21-17, +7.9 units) has a better record than Pittsburgh (18-20, -4.6 units) as we approach the last third of May. There is little debate the Twins have no earned it with the major’s sixth-best scoring offense at 4.5 runs per game and much improved pitching from a year ago.

Yet Minnesota is a +155 underdog in MLB odds for good reason and it start with starter Ricky Nolasco (3-1, 6.38). Once one the most durable and dependable pitchers in baseball, the righty has three wins thanks to his Twins teammates scoring five or more runs in those starts and a bullpen that is bailing him out. In four starts since coming back from elbow inflammation, Nolasco has made it to the sixth inning once and never beyond and with Minnesota’s bullpen being battered around some the last week in which its ERA swelled to 4.19, this is not good news for the underdog.

Former Twin Francisco Liriano (1-3, 2.96) will toe the rubber for Pittsburgh and has his ERA shows, unlike his mound counterpart; his team has not scored nearly as many runs but certainly should post crooked numbers tonight. Consider this, when a NL team has a slugging percentage under .400 and takes on an AL hurler with a WHIP of 1.70 or higher and their pitcher is on five or six days rest, they are 32-13.

MLB Pick – Pittsburgh -170


Cubs vs. Padres: San Diego Handles the Cubs
The MLB odds say the Padres are just a -130 home favorite, but I think they have this one covered. James Shields (5-0, 3.91) has not lost in San Diego uniform, though he’s not always pitched that well but allowed only one run in a victory at Seattle and the right-hander is 21-7 after giving up one or less earned runs in last outing the last three seasons. (Team's Record)

Chicago hits the road after a marvelous 6-1 homestand at Wrigley, but Petco Park has not been a great place for the Cubs, losers of eight of 11 at that ballpark.

Though the Cubs Jason Hammel (3-1, 3.11) has pitched effectively, he is 3-12 against a team with a losing record since last season. (Team's Record)

Chicago’s Kris Bryant will be excited to be back in the SoCal area after attending San Diego U., but Anthony Rizzo not so much having played for the Padres and having a .176 average at Petco.

MLB Pick – San Diego -130

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