Tuesday's MLB Betting Line Out of Whack for Twins vs. Sox: Back Minnesota +161 & Go Under

Darin Zank

Tuesday, June 2, 2015 12:32 PM GMT

Minnesota just swept 3 games from Boston last week, winning in a row as home dogs. The Twins are big dogs in MLB odds for the delayed opener of a 4-game series at Fenway Park Tonight.

Twins-Sox Tuesday Betting Odds
As of early Tuesday AM Boston and Clay Buchholz were favored on the MLB odds board by around -175 over Minnesota and Mike Pelfrey, with a total of eight runs.

 

The Situation
These teams were supposed to open this series Monday night, but got rained out. They'll make it up as part of a double-header Wednesday.

Minnesota just took two of three games from Toronto over the weekend, winning Sunday's rubber match 6-5. So the Twins have won five series in a row, and 11 of their last 14 games.

At 30-19 Minnesota leads the AL Central by a half-game over second-place Kansas City.

Boston, meanwhile, just dropped three of four games at Texas over the weekend, winning the series opener last Thursday but losing the last three games. The Sox led Sunday's series finale by a run heading into the bottom of the ninth but closer Koji Uehara gave up a game-losing two-out, two-run double to Josh Hamilton.

Boston has lost three of its last four series, and nine of its last 12 games. At 22-29 the Sox are in last place in the AL East, although only 4.5 games behind division-leading New York.

As mentioned above Minnesota swept three games from Boston last week at Target Field, by scores of 7-2, 2-1 and 6-4. Two of those games played OVER the totals.

 

Tuesday's Starters
This pitching match-up is a replay of last Tuesday's game, won by Minnesota 2-1.

Buchholz (2-6, 4.33) is six-for-10 on quality starts this season, working on a string of three in a row. Last time out, against these Twins, Buchholz gave up two runs in the first inning, then threw 6 1/3 further innings of scoreless ball. And over his last three starts he's allowed five earned runs through 22 2/3 innings. On the season Buchholz has permitted 62 hits through 60 1/3 innings, walked 16 and struck out 62. Boston is just 2-8 in Buchholz' starts, thanks in large part to some poor run support, with the totals tilting UNDER 6-3.

Since the beginning of last season Buchholz has started twice against Minnesota, giving up five runs and 17 hits through 13 1/3 innings; the Sox lost both those games, and both games played UNDER.

Pelfrey (4-1, 2.77) is five-for-nine on quality starts this year, and two for his last two. Last time out he held these Red Sox to one run through seven innings, and just before that he held Pittsburgh to one run through six innings. On the season Pelfrey has allowed 49 hits through 52 innings, walked 16 but struck out just 26. Minnesota is 7-2 in Pelfrey's starts, with the totals leaning UNDER 5-4.

Last Tuesday's outing was Pelfrey's first start against Boston since 2009.

 

Tuesday's Batting Splits
Boston ranks 17th in the Majors this season with a .696 team OPS against right-handed pitching, while Minnesota ranks 23rd against righties with a .675 OPS.

 

Twins-Sox Free Picks
The early line on this game is out of whack; the value for this MLB pick clearly lies with the underdog Twins. Also, both starting pitchers have been tough as of late, so we're thinking UNDER.

MLB Picks: Minnesota +161 at Pinnacle and UNDER eight runs at WagerWeb