Tuesday Odds: Home Splits, Extra Rest Favor Dodgers’ McCarthy Vs. Mets … Should You?

brandon mccarthy

Matthew Jordan

Monday, June 19, 2017 8:01 PM GMT

The Mets had the misfortune of having to faced Dodgers ace and Cy Young leader Clayton Kershaw in Monday’s series opener. Things get a bit easier for the Metropolitans in Tuesday’s Game 2 in Los Angeles (10 p.m. ESPN).

MLB Season Record: 21-17

New York Mets At Los Angeles Dodgers (-190, 8.5)

It’s Game 2 of a four-game series on Tuesday night when the New York Mets visit the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s a 10 p.m. ET first pitch and nationally televised by ESPN.

This is one of two series early this week to feature playoff teams from last season; the other is Cleveland at Baltimore. The Dodgers are in good shape to get back to the playoffs for a fifth year in a row, although winning the NL West is going to be a dogfight because of how unexpectedly good the Rockies and Diamondbacks are. All three of those clubs have winning percentages well north of .600 and the three-best run differentials in the National League. Presumably, then, both wild-card teams will come from the NL West.

It would take a miracle for the Mets to reach the playoffs for a third straight season as they are double-digit games behind Washington in the NL East and even further back of the final wild-card spot. You could almost field a playoff-quality team between players currently on the DL for both the Mets and Dodgers. For starting pitchers, you have Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey from New York and Scott Kazmir from the Dodgers. Closer Jeurys Familia from the Mets. Adrian Gonzalez at first base, Neil Walker at second, Asdrubal Cabrera at short and David Wright at third.  In the outfield, Juan Lagares, Andre Ethier and Andrew Toles. That’s a pretty good club!

I have yet to see Rookie of the Year odds, but the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger would have to be a favorite. Entering this series, he was hitting .261 with 19 homers and 43 RBIs despite not being called up until late April. Those 19 dingers through his first 50 games played tied the MLB record set by Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez last year. Bellinger, who then added two more homers in Monday's opener, has a 45.6 percent fly-ball rate, the seventh-highest in the majors if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. He’s hitting .375 with 13 homers against fly-ball pitchers with a slugging percentage of .969. Now having played just 51 games, Bellinger has reached 21 homers in fewer games than anyone in major-league history; the old mark was set by Wally Berger in 1930; he hit his 21st homer in his 55th game. 

 

Tuesday’s Probable Pitchers

It’s Robert Gsellman (5-4, 5.50) for the Mets, who is only in the rotation because of those injuries to Syndergaard and Harvey. Gsellman is from the Los Angeles area and makes his first-ever start against the Dodgers. He comes off an ugly outing, giving up a season-high seven earned runs and 11 hits over five innings in a loss to Washington. He was a little unlucky there with some bloop hits and a few plays not made that could have been.

The four starts before that, Gsellman, a sinker-baller, gave up just six total runs. Somewhat oddly, right-handers are killing Gsellman, hitting .335 off him with six homers in 164 at-bats compared to .235 and three dingers for 119 at-bats for lefties.

The Dodgers’ Brandon McCarthy (5-3, 3.14) hasn’t allowed more than two earned in any of his past five starts but is winless in his past three. He took a no-decision last Wednesday in Cleveland (5.1 IP, 1 ER). McCarthy is working on three straight quality starts at home, and in six starts at Dodger Stadium this season has a 2.85 ERA.

Curtis Granderson has faced McCarthy more than any Met, going 2-for-14 with three strikeouts. Jay Bruce is 2-for-7 with four strikeouts. Jose Reyes is 0-for-6.

 

Reasoning For Pick

McCarthy has been very good at home – Dodgers are 12-3 in his past 15 there -- and is 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA this year pitching on at least five days of rest. After six innings or so, he can turn it over to the bullpen that leads the National League in ERA, opponents’ batting average, opponents’ OBP and strikeouts per nine innings. L.A. is my MLB pick here even at that price. 

Free MLB Pick: Dodgers -190Best Line Offered: BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3139664, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,123,999991,169,93], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]