Our best plays on the run total MLB Odds include an offensive matchup between the Houston Astros/Baltimore Orioles, and a dream pitching matchup between the Atlanta Braves/LA Dodgers.
Houston Astros (Feldman) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Tillman)
Our first selection comes in what should be a high-scoring game between Baltimore and Houston. Oddsmakers have released a total of nine runs, with Chris Tillman and Scott Feldman, two highly unreliable pitchers, set to toe the rubber.
Let's start with Tillman, who has been an utter disaster so far in 2015. He's 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.62 WHIP through his first eight starts of the season. Tillman has been an easy fade every time he's taken the mound, and it's hard to imagine him faring much better as we get deeper into the season. He has a dreadful 5.17 SIERA heading into tonight's game.
Then there's Feldman, who hasn't been much better. He's 3-4 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.39 WHIP through his first nine assignments of the season. Feldman owns a much better SIERA (3.86), suggesting that he's been pitching better than the numbers may show at first glance, but it's still been mighty hard to trust him whenever he's taken the mound. As you may have guessed, we're not too bullish about his chances of a quality outing against a powerful Baltimore lineup tonight.
All in all, we have very little faith in either one of these hurlers to get the job done. There's a lot of pop in both of these offenses (Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Evan Gattis, just to name a few) and we should see at least a couple home runs being hit here. We have no issues fading these starters tonight and thus will be all over the OVER for our first MLB pick.
MLB Pick: OVER 9
Los Angeles Dodgers (Kershaw) vs. Atlanta Braves (Teheran)
Let's finish up on the west coast, where the Dodgers will do battle with the Braves in game two of their series. Los Angeles was able to scoot past Atlanta in a 6-3 win yesterday, thanks to a big eighth inning which saw them plate the winning three runs. Brett Anderson pitched seven solid innings but had to settle for the no decision, as did newcomer Williams Perez.
Tonight we get a dream pitching matchup between Clayton Kershaw and Julio Teheran, two hurlers that have proven that they're two of the best in the business. Of course, Kershaw has been even bigger of a monster, which is why the Dodgers find themselves favored by such a heavy margin at home this evening. The left-hander's numbers - 2-3 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.23 WHIP - may not scream out dominance, but he's still sporting an elite 11.26 K/9 ratio and 2.54 SIERA. Kershaw is still Kershaw.
Naturally we don't feel quite as confident in Teheran as we do Kershaw, but that doesn't mean he's had a bad season. He's gone 4-1 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, so it's clear that command has gotten away from him at times. That doesn't bode all that well up against a Dodgers offense that has proven to be mighty dangerous this season, but that hasn't stopped MLB odds makers from posting an incredible low total of six runs. They're expecting a pitcher's duel through and through, and we are too.
So, as we finalize our MLB picks for another busy Tuesday night, we are going to bite the bullet and recommend the UNDER, despite a very low number that's going to scare off a lot of people. So long as Teheran is able to show up and find success, we see this one ending well below the posted O/U of six.
MLB Pick: UNDER 6 at Bovada