Tuesday MLB Picks: 'Under' Found in Florida as Struggling Clubs Meet

Charles Stark

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 11:23 AM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 29, 2015 11:23 AM UTC

With both of these teams being out of the race I am going to back under the total when the Miami Marlins visit the Tampa Bay Ray.  This looks like a matchup of some decent pitching against some mediocre hitting and odds makers are on top of this game with a low total.

MLB odds makers have set the total of this game at 7.5 which seems low considering it is an AL game and the overall statistics.  Breaking down the pitchers though this line starts to make more sense and the best odds out there right now on the under is at - 115 at at Pinnacle Sports.  Although the juice is a bit high, for my under the total MLB pick of the day I like for this to be a low scoring affair.


Miami Marlins
Adam Conley gets the start for the Marlins and comes in with a 3.93 ERA, 1.31 whip, 52 strikeouts, and a 4-1 record on the year.  The rookie has been spot starting this year but for the most part has pitched well.  In his last five starts he has been solid allowing nine earned runs over 27 innings.  He has had a bad habit of walking too many guys but in his last two games he has tempered that limiting the Mets and Phillies to just one walk with 14 strikeouts.  He should be pretty motivated to pitch well and today has a good chance against a subpar offense in the Rays.

Miami ranks 29th in runs scored per game at 3.79, 26th in OPS at .695, and 9th in batting average hitting .260 as a team.  Since the loss of Giancarlo Stanton at the beginning of the season they simply have not done much at the plate but their batting is a nice surprise.  On the road they still remain one of the least productive offensive teams in the majors and I don't anticipate them having much success today at the plate.

Read my Tigers-Rangers MLB Pick for Another Free Play

Tampa Bay Rays
Matt Moore take the mound for the Rays and comes in with a 6.48 ERA, 1.62 whip, 39 strikeouts, and a 2-4 record.  You would think on first glance of his statistics that the total on this game is way off, but that is simply not the case.  He is finally starting to show signs of his old self and as long as he stays healthy should have a great year next season.  In his last two starts against two of the better hitting teams in the AL, the Orioles and Red Sox, he allowed only two earned runs off of nine hits in just under 14 innings.  Look for him to have a dominant day on the mound and keep the Marlins low in the run column.

The Rays rank 26th in runs per game at 3.91, 20th in OPS at .717, and 19th in batting average hitting .251 as a team.  They are one of the rare teams that actually hit better on the road compared to at home with all their major offensive statistics dropping in Tampa Bay.  Recently they have been swinging the bats a lot better and they should have some quality plate appearances against the rookie.  Still, they are not immune to having an underwhelming day at home, and with Moore putting up zeros I look for them to score, but not enough to assist in getting over this total.

Not the most interesting game of the day but that doesn't mean it can't be a profitable one.  For one of your MLB picks I recommend taking the under in this spot in this non-marquee game with a final of around 4-1. 

Free MLB Pick: Bet the 'Under' at Pinnacle Sports

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