Tonight our expert handicapper doubles up and analyzes an MLB game with excellent value as a side and total parlay. Join him in this betting preview before placing your MLB picks!
The Rockies continued their perfect start on the road last night, blanking the San Francisco Giants 2-0 in their home opener behind the pitching of a relatively inexperienced Eddie Butler. Butler walked six batters but the Giants failed to cash in, stranding 12 men on base in the process. The Colorado lineup stayed relatively hot, gathering 11 hits throughout the game. Now riding a 4 game losing streak, the coolest part of the game for Giants fans was likely the third World Series pennant being raised in five years in pregame festivities. Although Madison Bumgarner riding a police animal was also pretty cool:
I think Michael Bennett on that police bike after the NFC Championship Game was better, but when memes take off you have to ride them out.
In this game its Cristian Bergman taking the mound for the Rox and Tim Hudson pitching for the Giants. The weather should be great at game time for hitting, with the temperature sitting at just about 60F. The opening money line has the home team favored at -153 at Pinnacle, with the O/U sitting at 7 at multiple books. I was down on Hudson’s first start of the year against the Padres, but he performed admirably while giving up zero earned runs. Walks were an issue with the 39-year old veteran though giving up five of them over 6 1/3 innings, one intentional. With his current repertoire of pitches and declined velocity, Hudson has to improve on the walks to find success. He has to live on the black of the plate. When looking at tonight’s opponent Hudson didn’t register a decision against Colorado last year in four starts while accruing a 4.24 ERA; however, that lineup was missing a few pieces in some games that we will see tonight. Hudson didn’t register a win but the fact that he held Colorado to a .233 batting average is very positive.
Christian Bergman takes the mound for the Rockies after scalping a win in the home opener from Tyler Matzek in 5th inning relief. The Giants did find some success against him last year, with Buster Posey especially owning the rookie so far. Bergman’s split stats are interesting and worth noting for this game:
ERA at Night: 6.39
ERA Away: 5.16
ERA Outdoors: 6.26
Now, we have a small sample size of 55.2 innings with Bergman. Leaning on small sample sizes has inherent risk and these numbers could change drastically if he put together three good months. I just have a hard time trusting Bergman with my hard earned money until he shows otherwise.
MLB Pick: I have a hard time believing that the Giants’ bats will continue to be silent (or strand that many runners on base) and am looking for them to continue having success against Bergman, who they batted .333 against last year. Look for a dinger or two from the G-men, and for the home team to push five or more runs across the plate. I’m also not expecting Hudson to be perfect again, but he should do enough to get the win. With the rookie on the mound for the Rox, the MLB pick with the most value for this game is to parlay the Giants money line of -153 with the Over of 7 runs as posted on the MLB odds.